Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors digested new economic data. New orders for durable goods fell 6.1% in January, according to today's U.S. Census Bureau data, with a 16.2% drop in transportation equipment orders leading the decline. Excluding defense, orders fell 7.3% and excluding transportation new orders slipped 0.3%. The Confidence Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 106.7, which was lower than the downwardly revised 110.9 in January. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 0.2% in December compared to the previous month. Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metro markets were up 6.1%. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq was up 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $78 per barrel and gold was up $5 to $2044 per ounce.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

In this edition, recycling's renaissance may take time; VF's fears and fortunes; changes at ChargePoint; and APM Human Services, Hanesbrands, and Infineon Technologies.

Monday Tee Up: Earnings and Powell

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Monday Tee Up: Labor (The Fed's Other Job)

While growth strategies suffered the most in 2022, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains largely have been driven by a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.8% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. Argus has developed a sophisticated approach to Min Vol investing built around our proprietary quality and safety screens.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

We are raising our intermediate-term technical outlook back to bullish from neutral. After breaking out of a bullish cup formation on February 1, and above chart resistance from the prior highs at 4,100, the S&P 500 (SPX) pulled right back to that level on Monday and again on an intraday basis on Tuesday. The index also fell right to short-term trendline support off the lows since January 20. The result was a picture-perfect bullish backtest of support and a very strong bounce.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time to cash in the chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. Argus has developed a sophisticated approach to Min Vol investing built around our proprietary quality & safety screens. We recently updated our Min Vol theme model portfolio report.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

All technical eyes are on the S&P 500 (SPX), its 200-day average at 4,059, and the bear-market trendline at 4,110 (looking out two weeks). Many in the investment community are looking for a move up into this region and then another leg lower, with some expecting a retest and others even calling for a trip to 3,000 to 3,200. When the majority is expecting something, that's often a big tell that something else could happen. If the SPX breaks above resistance and stays there for more than a couple of days, there will be some very nervous market seers that likely will pivot, changing forecasts to a peak near the August highs.

The U.S. midterm elections are tomorrow, as voters will head to the polls to vote for U.S. Representatives, for some U.S. Senators, and on numerous local issues. Currently, the Democratic Party has control of all three major national political branches: the Presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. That is likely to change, as incumbent parties tend to lose votes in midterm elections, particularly when voter approval for the president is low. According to Reuters/Ipsos, only 42% of Americans approve of the job President Biden is doing, up from 38% in July but down from 49% a year ago. Indeed, the latest forecasts from FiveThirtyEight give the Republicans a better-than-80% chance to take over the House of Representatives, and the GOP also is now potentially poised to win the Senate. In mid-term election years, stocks historically have stumbled in early autumn on the prospect for change. Average S&P 500 returns in the third quarter of mid-term election years since 1980 are -1.2%. However, once the results are in, investors respond positively to the likelihood of potential Washington gridlock (meaning low odds for major legislation affecting taxes, trade, regulations, the economy, or the markets) for the next two years. This positive sentiment is reflected in relative outperformance in the final months of the mid-term year, as 4Q S&P 500 returns have averaged 3.7% in midterm election years since 1980.

In the eight weeks before the start of earnings season, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research was consistently positive. On a scale where any reading below 2.00 is bullish, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio never got higher than 1.99 and was as low as 1.06. That resulted in a peak bullish Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio of 1.71 on October 15, just as the earnings onslaught began.

One can argue that any day stocks go up in a well-established bear market is a good day for the bulls. Yet on Tuesday, the indices closed well below intraday highs, especially the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100. The "500" gave up about half its gains, but still finished with a 1.1% pop. The Nasdaq and the QQQs gave up about 70% of their intraday gains, but did manage to rise 0.9% and 0.8%, respectfully.

Recent one-week insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research have been toggling between very positive and neutral. As a result, Vickers' eight-week sell/buy ratios have started to retreat a bit from the exceedingly bullish levels of a few weeks ago. Still, current readings remain well below the 2.00 line that starts the bullish territory for these sentiment gauges. Vickers' current NYSE Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.60, the Nasdaq is 1.87, and the Total, which accounts for activity across all of the exchanges, is 1.74. Those are good sentiment readings under any conditions.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

ESG Stocks

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Simply put, the trading week ended Friday, April 22, was just ugly, with a two-day S&P 500 collapse of 4.2% (the largest two-day slide since September 2020). The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gave up 4.6%.

January Jitters: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

Stocks kept momentum going in July and August. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season and have come across many stocks that have approached target prices. We set targets through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting for the latest information, here are some of the stocks on which we raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft, and awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Investors will be closely scrutinizing Mr. Powell's comments regarding the state of the economy, the impact of the Delta variant, and the timing of any reduction in the central bank's bond buying program. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1797 per ounce.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

First-Quarter Review and Full-Year 2021 Outlook

The nation has been transfixed by the deep freeze across most of the country, the power and water woes in Texas, and the prospects for more storms ahead. Quietly and seemingly in the background, the stock market is showing signs of calming.

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating approximately 272 active landfills and more than 339 transfer stations (includes acquired Advanced Disposal landfills and transfer stations). The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler in North America.

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating approximately 272 active landfills and more than 339 transfer stations (includes acquired Advanced Disposal landfills and transfer stations). The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler in North America.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid surging coronavirus cases, as the U.S. pandemic death toll rose above 250,000. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 742,000 for the week ended November 14, up from 711,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 700,000. In other data, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 4.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted 6.85 million units, up from 6.57 million in September and above the consensus forecast of 6.45 million. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $41.50 per barrel, while gold fell $14 to $1860 per ounce.

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating approximately 250 active landfills and more than 300 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler in North America.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday, finishing off a mixed week that saw the major indices close flat to higher. Riskier equities performed better than blue chips, resuming a trend from the early weeks of the recovery. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 191 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%. For the full week, the Dow was flat, the S&P 500 was up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.7%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down 2.1%, while the S&P is up 5.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 26.0%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 9.0%, the S&P 500 is up 19.3%, and the Nasdaq is up 45.9%.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday, finishing off a mixed week that saw the major indices close flat to higher. Riskier equities performed better than blue chips, resuming a trend from the early weeks of the recovery. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 191 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%. For the full week, the Dow was flat, the S&P 500 was up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.7%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down 2.1%, while the S&P is up 5.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 26.0%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 9.0%, the S&P 500 is up 19.3%, and the Nasdaq is up 45.9%.

Stocks recovered from early losses on Thursday, finishing higher despite more dismal employment data. First-time jobless claims totaled 2.981 million for the week ended May 9, down from the prior week but above the Reuters consensus of 2.5 million. The new data raised the number of people filing for benefits to 36.5 million since mid-March. Rick Bright, a former top U.S. health official, told a House panel that the U.S. would face its 'darkest winter in modern history' if it did not improve its response to the pandemic. The Dow rose 1.62%, the S&P 1.15%, and the Nasdaq 0.91%. Crude oil rose 9% to more than $27 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1739 per ounce.

Stocks recovered from early losses on Thursday, finishing higher despite more dismal employment data. First-time jobless claims totaled 2.981 million for the week ended May 9, down from the prior week but above the Reuters consensus of 2.5 million. The new data raised the number of people filing for benefits to 36.5 million since mid-March. Rick Bright, a former top U.S. health official, told a House panel that the U.S. would face its 'darkest winter in modern history' if it did not improve its response to the pandemic. The Dow rose 1.62%, the S&P 1.15%, and the Nasdaq 0.91%. Crude oil rose 9% to more than $27 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1739 per ounce.

The onset of the coronavirus has knocked the stock market into a bear market. Volatility, which was low in early 2020 after a robust year for equities in 2019, has spiked higher. Is it time to bail? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-1.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the volatility? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis across the market cycle.

The onset of the coronavirus has knocked the stock market into a bear market. Volatility, which was low in early 2020 after a robust year for equities in 2019, has spiked higher. Is it time to bail? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-1.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the volatility? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis across the market cycle.

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 250 active landfills and more than 300 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler (10% of revenue) in North America.