Stocks edged up on Monday ahead of a collection of economic data that will be released this week, including inflation, retail sales and housing data. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 was up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%. Crude oil is trading little changed near $77 per barrel. Gold fell $10 to $2028 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Autozone Inc. (AZO); Pinterest Inc (PINS); Oshkosh Corp (OSK) and the Focus List deletions are MongoDB Inc (MDB); Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc (ODFL); Tesla Inc (TSLA); Twilio Inc (TWLO).

The S&P 500 is up approximately 37% from its bear-market low of 3577 on October 12, 2022. The index surpassed a 20% gain back in June 2023 and, according to one long-held theory, is now in a bull market. Even on the more-stringent definition of a bull market -- that stocks must reach a new all-time high before a bull market begins -- a new bull has started, as the S&P 500 has now topped the old 1/3/2022 high of 4796. Certainly, there were some wobbly steps back in August, September, and October, when the index sold off 2.1%, 5.0%, and 4.0%, respectively, due to high inflation and high interest rates. But the market seems to have settled as the economy continues to grow and inflation declines. What can investors expect going forward from a bull market? We have studied the 13 bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 13 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration. We also note that recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods of time. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of 70 months. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks deeply depressed on valuation, whereas stocks are already a bit above fair value in the current market environment. Even so, if rates continue to head lower on mild inflation news, earnings growth accelerates further, and the economy avoids a recession, then this new bull market, led by the performance of disruptive technology companies, could have room to run.

4Q23 Sets the Table for 2024

Stocks were little changed on Tuesday morning following more 3Q earnings reports and new housing market and consumer confidence data. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said that U.S. home prices rose 5.6% from the prior year in August, up from 4.6% in July. The reading marked the third straight monthly increase. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index also reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in August, accelerating from 1% in July. Meanwhile, The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October, down from 104.3 in September but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 100. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold traded near $2004 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The major indices finished slightly lower on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports from Qualcomm, PayPal, and other major companies. Apple and Amazon also reported above-consensus sales and earnings after the close. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended July 29, in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.7 million. The data came ahead of the government's July employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for 200,000 new payroll jobs, down from 209,000 in June, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P 0.25%, and the Nasdaq 0.10%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $82 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1969 per ounce.

In this edition, Crane cleared for takeoff; openings in apparel; CDMOs vital to health of healthcare industry; and Valero Energy, Pinterest, and Mirvac Group.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors weighed the takeover of failing First Republic Bank by JPMorgan. JPM shares rose nearly 3% on news of the acquisition. Investors also awaited the Fed's interest rate decision and economic commentary later this week. A 25-basis-point rate hike is widely expected. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $75.50 per barrel while gold fell $8 to $1992 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching to see whether Mr. Powell strikes a more hawkish tone after last week's post-rate-hike news conference and strong January employment report. Baidu shares jumped 11% on news that the Chinese tech company would launch a new artificial intelligence chatbot, similar to ChatGPT, in March. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose $3 to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1989 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings Roll On

Stocks fell sharply in 3Q 2022, with the S&P 500 down more than 5.2% for the period after a 9% decline in September. Year to date, the index is down 25% and in a bear market. Growth stocks have again been the weakest performers, as sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary have all lagged the major market indices. The leading sectors were value-oriented, including Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 5.6% during the quarter, and the median stock declined 6.9%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 5.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 7.1%. Will investors continue to favor value in 4Q22? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy? Given interest rates that are on the rise, we are thinking 2022 may be the one-in-five years that value leads growth for the full year. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Regarding sectors, our current Over-Weights are Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been a disaster since peaking in February 2021. The ETF fell to $37.50 on Monday, down from $56.70 early last year -- a total decline of 34%. During that time, EEM has underperformed the S&P 500 on a consistent basis. The U.S. Dollar Index has been in a consistent uptrend since June 2021, and we attribute the EEM weakness to the strong greenback (as the two assets have a high negative correlation). Year-to-date, Poland (EPOL) has crashed 40%, China is off 23%, and the Philippines is down 19%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The major indices turned on the afterburners in July following a difficult June. The S&P 500 soared 9%, regaining all its losses from June. The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 both exploded over 12%, recapturing their June declines and then some. The S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000 rocketed almost 11%. It was the largest 20-day rate-of-change (ROC) for the '500,' the '400,' and the '2000' since late 2020/early 2021. The Nasdaq and the QQQs saw a better 20-day ROC in early April, which, as we now know, was a bear-market rally.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, recovering from recent sharp losses as investors weighed more 1Q earnings from major companies and new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate in 1Q, below the consensus growth forecast of 1.1% and the first decline since 2Q20. Weekly employment data was better than expected. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 180,000 for the week ended April 23, down from 185,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 184,000. On the earnings front, Meta shares rose more than 17%, despite mixed 1Q results, after the company reported better-than-expected growth in daily active users. The Dow rose 1.85%, the S&P 2.47%, and the Nasdaq 3.06%. Crude oil traded near $105 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1897 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Monday morning amid continued fierce fighting in Ukraine, new sanctions on Russia, and President Putin's decision over the weekend to place Russian nuclear forces on 'special combat readiness.' The Treasury Department also froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank held in the U.S. Ukrainian and Russian representatives held talks in Belarus, though the Ukrainian government did not expect any progress toward ending the conflict. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 4% to $95 per barrel, while gold traded near $1913 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday amid continued inflation concerns. The Technology and Materials sectors finished higher while Industrials, Communication Services, and Utilities declined. Disney shares fell sharply following weaker-than-expected 4Q results and disappointing subscriber growth in the Disney+ streaming service. Electric vehicle maker Rivian jumped 22% and has now risen more than 50% since its Wednesday IPO. The Dow fell 0.44%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.52%. Crude oil fell slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1865 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday amid continued inflation concerns. The Technology and Materials sectors finished higher while Industrials, Communication Services, and Utilities declined. Disney shares fell sharply following weaker-than-expected 4Q results and disappointing subscriber growth in the Disney+ streaming service. Electric vehicle maker Rivian jumped 22% and has now risen more than 50% since its Wednesday IPO. The Dow fell 0.44%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.52%. Crude oil fell slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1865 per ounce.

Due to a difficult September, in which the S&P 500 fell 4.7%, 3Q21 was barely positive for stocks, with the major benchmark index increasing only 0.6%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage fell 1.7% during the quarter, and the median stock dropped 1.4%. The average BUY-rated stock slipped 0.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock declined 3.7%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps reverse their recent weak trend? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to resume their outperformance over time, and think this may be the one-in-five years that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are thus more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed, and this group looks to offer value into 2022.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN); Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR); Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM); Cloudflare Inc (NET) and the Focus List deletions are Sanmina Corp (SANM); EBay Inc. (EBAY); Coca-Cola Co (KO); Pinterest Inc (PINS).

The stock market moved higher last week, with Tech stocks outperforming blue chips by a sizeable margin. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 243 points, or 0.69%. The S&P 500 was up 0.88%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.23%. For the week, the DJIA was up 336 points, or 0.96%, the S&P 500 was up 1.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.82%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 15.84%, the S&P 500 is up 20.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 17.39%.

This edition features electrical suppliers and the fight against greenhouse gases; more talk of tapering; Amazon's earnings; and notes from Tesla, Starbucks, and Pinterest.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after three days of losses, led by the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 444,000 for the week ended May 15, down from 478,000 a week earlier and slightly below the Bloomberg consensus of 450,000. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell to $63 per barrel, while gold traded near $1879 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We recently raised our rating on the Communication Services sector to Over-Weight. In this barbell sector, media and entertainment companies should benefit from robust online activity and the reopening of theme parks and movie theaters. Providers of telecom services should benefit from ARPU gains as the 5G rollout gains traction. The style mix of the sector is approximately one-third value and two-thirds growth. The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 1.1 (like the old telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 7% and the P/E ratio is 21x. The sector accounts for 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%-14% of diversified portfolios to the sector. Here are some of our top picks.

Stock prices, as expressed by the S&P 500, are near all-time highs and, on depressed earnings, are well above fair value, which our model pegs at closer to 3300 due to the weak pandemic-influenced EPS in 2020. Our stock-market valuation model takes into account factors such as stock prices, five-year normalized earnings (three historical years, two forward-looking), GDP, inflation, and T-bond and T-bill yields. We note that stocks rarely trade right at fair value. Since 1960, on average, the index has traded at a tight 2% above fair value, but the standard deviation to the mean is 16%. That means we expect the S&P 500 to trade between 14% undervalued and 18% overvalued. At current prices, the stock market is almost 25% above fair value, implying that investors are quite optimistic about equities in the coming months. We'd feel better about the outlook for stocks if valuations were not so stretched. Several factors could improve valuations: a pullback in stock prices; lower bond yields; or better earnings, which we do expect to see in upcoming quarters.

Argus Research has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Lazard Ltd. (LAZ); KLA Corp. (KLAC); Silk Road Medical Inc (SILK); Pinterest Inc (PINS) and the Focus List deletions are Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG); Moderna Inc (MRNA); Verizon Communications Inc (VZ); Western Digital Corp. (WDC).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Friday morning following a slightly weaker-than-expected January employment report and a preliminary Senate vote supporting President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 49,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January, just shy of the Reuters consensus forecast of 50,000 but up from a revised loss of 227,000 in December. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq were all up about 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1811 per ounce.

This edition features an overvalued tech sector; the capitol riot; fast fashion; and notes from Intel, Veolia, and Aphria.

Our weekly review of insider sentiment, using data from Vickers Stock Research, has us looking for calendar dates that we can use to end the phrase 'the weakest point since.' As in, 'that data point is at its weakest point since...'

This edition features digital ad spending outlook; pandemic's impact on payments industry; chipmakers; and notes from Boeing, Amazon, and Curaleaf.

If you looked only at the closing figures for October 12, you might say that the stock market was very strong. Yet intraday stats were abnormal, tilted toward big caps to an almost scary degree. Then, at about 2:30, there was a solid rotation back to the small and mid-caps and away from the big boys. Market breadth widened out quite a bit by the end of the session.

If you looked only at the closing figures for October 12, you might say that the stock market was very strong. Yet intraday stats were abnormal, tilted toward big caps to an almost scary degree. Then, at about 2:30, there was a solid rotation back to the small and mid-caps and away from the big boys. Market breadth widened out quite a bit by the end of the session.

After Monday's bullish intraday reversal and relative strength from prior leaders, Tuesday followed through with strength from the leaders of just a few weeks ago. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rose 2.2%, aided by heavily weighted AMZN (22%), which spiked 5.6%. This was AMZN's biggest day in over two months. Communications Services (XLC) climbed 2%, led by FB and GOOGL -- which each rose over 2%. Not to be left out, Technology (XLK) gained 1.6%, led by gains in AAPL and MSFT. Could everything be right with the stock market once again?