The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines and AI) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); Micron Technology Inc. (MU); Oracle Corp. (ORCL); Invesco Ltd (IVZ) and the Focus List deletions are Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); American Express Co. (AXP); Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD); Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH).

The 1Q24 EPS season gets under way later this week, launched, as usual by the earnings reports from the big banks. In the following week, the floodgates will open, with Consumer, Healthcare, and Industrial companies all releasing results. Tech and Energy companies generally report later in the EPS period, and then the Retailers wrap things up, likely in mid-to-late May. Consensus estimates for 1Q24 growth range from mid-single-digits to high-single-digits. This follows 10% growth in 4Q EPS, according to Refinitiv. Leading sectors for 1Q24 are expected to be Communication Services (+27% EPS growth year-over-year), Technology (+21%), Utilities (+19%), and Consumer Discretionary (+17%). On the downside, earnings from the Energy and Materials sectors are both expected to decline 24%. Healthcare earnings are expected to slip 5%. For 2024, our full-year earnings estimate is $247, implying high-single-digit growth from 2023 levels. Remember, companies often exceed earnings expectations. Last quarter, just over four-fifths of companies exceeded consensus expectations; and the average beat against expectations was above 7%. Over the preceding decade, about 75% of S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations; and those companies on average topped consensus quarterly EPS estimates by about 6%.

'Green Shoots' from the Fed

In this edition, we say viva Veeva; the China housing market is building up to something positive; computer software has a great future; and Sensata, Sunny Optical, and Onsemi.

Eight Fundamental Forecasts for 2024

Soft Landing Still on Track: 2Q 23 Economic Review

This could be an important week for the financial markets, with the major stock indices popping back to the underside (potential resistance) or just above (as with the Nasdaq 100) their 50-day averages -- and all with a lower high in place. Treasury yields are at the top of their range going back to October 2022, and are either topping out from an intermediate-term perspective or will complete large cup formations (which suggest another big move to the upside for yields).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but pointed to additional rate hikes later this year. The European Central Bank also raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% - a 22-year high. Meanwhile, retail sales data was stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, down from 0.4% growth in April, but above the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 0.1%. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil rose 2% to nearly $70 per barrel while gold traded near $1970 per ounce.

Stocks were lower Monday morning but retraced their losses by midday. Investors are bracing for consumer and producer inflation readings due Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively while navigating contagion fears. Notably, First Republic Bank (FRC) plunged 67.65% and was halted due to the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank as investors fear contagion to regional banks despite regulators stepping in. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 0.8% to $76 per barrel, while gold rose $49 to $1916 per ounce.

As of this writing, there are only 14 trading days left in 2022, and the S&P 500 is down 17.5%, the Nasdaq is off 30%, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 29%, the NYSE has given up 11%, the Dow Industrials are lower by (only) 8%, the S&P 400 has declined 13%, and the Russell 2000 has given back 19%.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about unchecked inflation, Fed rate hikes, and a potential recession. Retail sales were stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in August following a revised 0.4% decline in July. The Reuters consensus forecast called for sales to be unchanged. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil fell $4 to $85 per barrel, while gold traded near $1680 per ounce.

In this edition, Examining the All-Important ERP Ecosystem, China Real Estate Prospects, the State of Comcast, and Fortune Brands, T-Mobile, and Teradyne.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning after recent sharp losses as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate announcement this afternoon. Based on recent hot inflation data, the Fed is now expected to move even more aggressively than initially planned, with a 75-basis-point hike. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell to $118 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1823 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Market Tries to Come Back

The stock market is stumbling like a reveler exiting a company holiday party (remember those from pre-COVID times?). In the final full trading week of 2021, the S&P 500 slipped 1.94%; the Dow Industrials dropped 1.68%; and the Nasdaq crashed 2.95%. Predictably, growth stocks in the Nasdaq were hit hardest during a week in which the Fed doubled down on its QE taper and laid out its rate-hike timeline for 2022.

The stock market performed very well last week as Omicron concerns abated. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks by a slim margin, though both were up substantially. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 216 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 was up 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.73%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,391 points, or 4.02%, the S&P 500 was up 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.61%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 17.53%, the S&P 500 is up 25.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.28%.

The stock market performed very well last week as Omicron concerns abated. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks by a slim margin, though both were up substantially. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 216 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 was up 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.73%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,391 points, or 4.02%, the S&P 500 was up 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.61%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 17.53%, the S&P 500 is up 25.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.28%.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning on continued concerns about slowing economic growth and potentially higher corporate tax rates. Manufacturing data was weak. The Federal Reserve said that U.S. manufacturing output rose just 0.2% in August, down from 1.6% in July and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.4% growth. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $73 per barrel, while gold fell $11 to $1796 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning as investors process the Fed's policy decision. Interest rates will remain near zero but 13 of the FOMC's 18 members expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The central bank will continue to purchase at least $120 billion a month in agency mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries. In other news, initial jobless claims rose to 412,000 for the week ended June 12. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P was down 0.3% and the Nasdaq was up 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $70 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1774 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's afternoon policy statement and follow-up commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 10.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.421 million in February, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.56 million. Building permits also fell 10.8% to an annualized 1.682 million. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1729 per ounce.

After a strong first week of December, stocks stalled in week two. Concerns about the economy faltering from the current COVID-19 wave were punctuated when weekly initial unemployment claims were at the highest reading since September, and continuing claims increased. Hopes that the report would spur action on a stimulus package were dashed when Congress went home for the weekend with nothing settled.

Volatility and sector rotation continue to rule the day in major stock indices. If you owned nothing but the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week, it was a 'whatever' few days. If you owned nothing but the stocks in the Nasdaq Composite, not so much. Insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research pretty much mirror that pattern.

Volatility and sector rotation continue to rule the day in major stock indices. If you owned nothing but the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week, it was a 'whatever' few days. If you owned nothing but the stocks in the Nasdaq Composite, not so much. Insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research pretty much mirror that pattern.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning amid positive economic data and as the Fed Reserve's two-day meeting begins. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 13.3 points to 17 in September, above the consensus forecast of 6. New orders increased 7.1 and shipments grew 14.1. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $38 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1961 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning amid positive economic data and as the Fed Reserve's two-day meeting begins. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 13.3 points to 17 in September, above the consensus forecast of 6. New orders increased 7.1 and shipments grew 14.1. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $38 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1961 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday after fluctuating near breakeven for most of the session. First-time unemployment benefit claims once again fell from the prior week, to 1.508 million. However, the pace of the decline slowed and claims exceeded the consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell slightly to 20.54 million, but also exceeded the consensus of 19.85 million. The Dow fell 0.15%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.33%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $39 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1731 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday after fluctuating near breakeven for most of the session. First-time unemployment benefit claims once again fell from the prior week, to 1.508 million. However, the pace of the decline slowed and claims exceeded the consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell slightly to 20.54 million, but also exceeded the consensus of 19.85 million. The Dow fell 0.15%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.33%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $39 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1731 per ounce.

Stocks finished higher on 5/15/20, but just by a bit. The major indices were down for the week for the first time since the final week of April. The DJIA lost 2.7%; the S&P 500 was off by 2.3%; and the Nasdaq Composite was down by 1.2%. In an ominous sign for the industrial economy, the Dow Transports declined just under 7% last week.

Stocks finished higher on 5/15/20, but just by a bit. The major indices were down for the week for the first time since the final week of April. The DJIA lost 2.7%; the S&P 500 was off by 2.3%; and the Nasdaq Composite was down by 1.2%. In an ominous sign for the industrial economy, the Dow Transports declined just under 7% last week.