U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

10 Investment Themes for 2024

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 3Q23. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists recently made progress with investments into companies such as FedEx and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

In this edition, WestRock's restructuring causes some ripples; Nike faces headwinds but walks on air; industrial distributors poised to benefit; and Eastman Chemical, Ubisoft, and General Mills.

Monday Tee Up: Back to Jobs

In this edition, renewable power adoption not so easy; interest-rate risk factor swamps bank stock valuations; Australia shoppers make priorities clear; and Nike, Agco, and Huntington Ingalls.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

June was another stellar month for the stock market as the rally finally started to extend beyond just a few big Technology sector names. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) tacked on 6.5%, the NASDAQ added 6.6%, the S&P 100 (OEX) rose 6%, the NYSE advanced 6.6%, the S&P MidCap 400 popped 9%, and the Russell 2000 was up 8.1%. These are very consistent monthly index gains for the first time in 2023. For the year, the SPX is up 16%, the NASDAQ has added 32%, the sizzling hot NDX has exploded 39%, and the S&P 100 has added 21%.

In this edition, the United Auto Workers are likely to hit the brakes; interest in green hydrogen is rising; oil prices are falling, and gas prices aren't, and Nike, Bayer, and Sanofi.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Fed's afternoon policy statement and follow-up comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A 25-basis-point rate hike is widely expected based on the CME's FedWatch Tool. On the earnings front, Nike shares fell, despite better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, as management warned of margin pressure as it works to reduce excess inventory. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1948 per ounce.

In this edition, U.S. Infrastructure Spending Boosts CRH, Auto Maintenance Is Far From Worn-Out, Which Is Welcome News for Bapcor, Spotify's Good Spot, and Paychex, Nike, and Workday

Our End-of-Year Note to Clients

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning after a slightly weaker-than-expected GDP report. In its third and final estimate, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate in 1Q. It previously projected a decline of 1.5%. The economy grew at a 6.9% annualized rate in 4Q21. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil rose to $112 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1817 per ounce.

Stocks plunged on Thursday morning amid mounting recession concerns, more than erasing yesterday's gains. The selloff came a day after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, the first such increase since 1994, and lowered its full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast. The Dow fell 2.4%, the S&P 3.2%, and the Nasdaq 3.9%. Crude oil traded near $116 per barrel, while gold rose $28 to $1847 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues to be volatile, and with its latest bounce back is sitting at $107.30/barrel. After going parabolic in March and reaching $130, crude oil pulled back to $93.50, rallied back to $116.65, and fell to an intraday low of $93 on April 11 before rallying back above $107. In the process, WTI has completed a triangle and would complete a double bottom on a break over $115. It is also possible that oil completed a three-wave ABC reversal, in which wave C was truncated.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning, recovering after interest rate concerns drove a down session on Monday. The rally was led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors, while Energy and Utility stocks traded lower. On the earnings front, Nike shares rose 4% following better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, while Carnival fell after the cruise operator warned of rising fuel costs and projected a loss in fiscal 2022. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 2.0%. Crude oil fell 1% to $110 per barrel, while gold dropped $15 to $1915 per ounce.

Our End-of-Year Letter

This edition features sportswear in the pandemic; SPACs and investment banks; seatmaker Adient; and notes from Merck and new coverage GDS Holdings and Paychex.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning amid continued uncertainty in Washington and new consumer spending and inflation data. The Commerce Department said that consumer spending rose a stronger-than-expected 0.8% in August after a decline of 0.1% in July, while the core personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - rose 0.3%, in line with the July increase. The core PCE also rose 3.6% from the prior year, again in line with July's increase and slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $75 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1759 per ounce.

When investors are souring on the stock market, they tend to sell any rallies. And when they are willing to let the good times roll, they tend to buy any dips. So far, 2021 has been a year of buying the dips. That may explain why, in the trading year to date, every month except January finished with a gain on the S&P 500. The blue-chip index advanced 5.8% in the first half, was up 14.4% as of mid-year, and is already up 1.7% in July. Granted, historically July is the best summer month, averaging a 1.1% gain on the S&P 500 since 1980.

Stocks rose on Friday morning with the S&P 500 setting another record high. The Commerce Department reported that personal income decreased 2% in May. Disposable personal income fell 2.3%, while personal consumption expenditures increased by less than 0.1%. The PCE price index increased 0.4%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5%. The S&P was up 0.3%, the Nasdaq was down less than 0.1% and the Dow was up 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1778 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Monday morning, led by the Technology sector, as 10-year Treasury yields declined. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 6.6% to an annualized rate of 6.22 million in February. The reading was well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.5 million, reflecting the impact of rising mortgage rates, low inventory, and cold winter weather. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1736 per ounce.

There are now more than 80 million Millennials, born between 1982 and 2000 and ranging in age from their early 20s to their late-30s. This generation is the largest in history - bigger than even the Baby Boomers. Yet despite their size, and according to our research, Millennials currently account for 25% of total U.S income - some $3.1 trillion in direct annual purchasing power. Millennials are already coveted by marketers, even though their annual average income is 40% below the spending levels of the generation ahead of them (Gen X) and 30% below the spending levels of Baby Boomers, who are slowing down. But as Millennials rise into their peak earning years, their earnings are expected to grow.

For the better part of a month, we've reviewed weekly data from Vickers Stock Research and posited that corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners clearly are not as exuberant as other investors (if major stock indices at all-times highs mean anything). Yet insiders are known for increasingly taking money off the table when stock prices move increasingly higher. So is current insider sentiment normal or of greater concern?

The stock market has seen a very nice recovery over the past couple of days. While the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the S&P 500 have all popped back above their 50-day moving averages, the indices are still in short-term technical downtrends (with a lower low and lower high). The difficult market dynamic in the near term is that the recent pullback has done little to cool the excessive optimism toward stocks, especially from small traders.

The stock market has seen a very nice recovery over the past couple of days. While the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the S&P 500 have all popped back above their 50-day moving averages, the indices are still in short-term technical downtrends (with a lower low and lower high). The difficult market dynamic in the near term is that the recent pullback has done little to cool the excessive optimism toward stocks, especially from small traders.

Our rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector is Over-Weight. Many employees are splitting time between work and home, and we expect efforts to refresh the home space to continue. Consumer Discretionary niches including housing and retail have been strong, and we look for this strength to extend to the recovering auto industry going forward. The sector accounts for approximately 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 13%-14% of diversified portfolios to the group. The following are the Consumer Discretionary picks we use in our model portfolios and our Focus List.

Our rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector is Over-Weight. Many employees are splitting time between work and home, and we expect efforts to refresh the home space to continue. Consumer Discretionary niches including housing and retail have been strong, and we look for this strength to extend to the recovering auto industry going forward. The sector accounts for approximately 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 13%-14% of diversified portfolios to the group. The following are the Consumer Discretionary picks we use in our model portfolios and our Focus List.

Stock Market Wobbles Toward the Election

Stock Market Wobbles Toward the Election

We abhor dramatic proclamations and clickbait headlines, but admit that a part of what we do is to have our say in a manner that resonates. While some in the financial industry strive for catchy titles and media quotes, our only goal is to be as correct as possible about the direction of markets and to warn when a trend might call for a reallocation of assets. So while we're not shy about using humor now and then, it's the meat of our content that is most important to us.

We abhor dramatic proclamations and clickbait headlines, but admit that a part of what we do is to have our say in a manner that resonates. While some in the financial industry strive for catchy titles and media quotes, our only goal is to be as correct as possible about the direction of markets and to warn when a trend might call for a reallocation of assets. So while we're not shy about using humor now and then, it's the meat of our content that is most important to us.

Last week, we talked about seeing some much-anticipated reversion to the mean from the stock market; there was clear evidence we were finally seeing some love for the laggards and some profit-taking for the most loved. We saw the same thing on Monday and believe this rotation is bullish for the stock market. Yesterday, the most beaten-down sector, Energy (XLE), led the sector board once again -- with a 2.6% gain. Industrials (XLI) were second, with a 3.1% jump. Technology and Communications Services (XLC) finished last, both falling 0.3%.