In this edition, European interest-rate cuts on the horizon; firm opportunities among drug and biopharma firms; and reports Tesla's affordable vehicle will be canceled; and Lazard, PVH, and Genmab.

We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

Early last year, the consensus belief had the economy headed toward a recession and the Federal Reserve needing to be aggressive with interest-rate cuts to prevent significant weakness in GDP. As 2023 progressed, the recession callers backed off as the economy kept its footing after the huge hike in the fed funds rate as well as the entire Treasury curve. And while inflation came down a lot faster than may thought, it did so without a concurrent weakening in the economy.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stubborn Inflation, Sturdy Consumers: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are MongoDB Inc (MDB); General Mills, Inc. (GIS); Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA).

We see some possible gems right now in the Healthcare sector. Overall, we have a sector rating of Market-Weight, but this category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date. The Healthcare ETF (XLV) is down 1.6% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity to pick up some consistently steady companies, with big brands, and solid financials. These companies are science-focused, enhance lives, and are innovators. Some have recently raised guidance, communicating management's confidence. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the industry and pull out some leaders that we like.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday. The Commerce Department said that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index excluding the cost of food and energy, or so-called 'core' PCE, rose 4.2% over the prior year in July, in line with economist expectations and up from 4.1% in June. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.8% versus 0.6% the month prior. Personal income grew 0.2% in the month, while disposable income was flat. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended August 26. Continuing claims rose by 28,000 to 1.725 million. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $84 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1967 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Tesla Inc (TSLA); Walmart Inc (WMT); Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Adobe Inc (ADBE) and the Focus List deletions are DraftKings Inc. (DKNG); Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO); Coca-Cola Co (KO).

The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are taking a breather from strong rallies in May and June, and the S&P 500 is seemingly on a break from its so-far nice June rally. But while the indices have run into important resistance, we are seeing good signs of market breadth in large-market-cap stock indices.

In our previous commentary on insider sentiment, we noted five weeks of bullish sentiment based on data from Vickers Stock Research. We also noted a slowing in the bullish mood; not a move to neutral or bearish, but a slowing in the growth of bullish sentiment. Among the data, insider sentiment from companies that list on the Nasdaq remained atop the leader board.

There are many first-quarter EPS reports still to come. But, so far, the stock market seems to be taking results in stride. In addition to more EPS reports, we have some Fed speakers as well as CPI and PPI releases this week. The big three indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100) are all sitting at the top of their recent ranges -- and, as hard as it has been for them to break through, they are certainly set up to do so.

While we maintain our long-term neutral technical assessment, there are some positive developments from certain momentum indicators. These are weekly or monthly indicators and can take a long time to change from bullish to bearish and back again. As well, they don't whipsaws the way shorter-term measures can, which is a good thing. The one fault, if it is a fault, is that long-term momentum measures will never get you in at the bottom of an intermediate- to longer-term trend and will never get you out near the top of a rising trend. But this doesn't really concern us, as the most consistent money is made during the heart of a trend and not by trying to time tops and bottoms, which is a treacherous and very difficult undertaking.

In this edition, global oil inventories face future; feeling the internet's backbone; and initiating coverage of Qualys; and Lithium Americas, Bausch & Lomb and Macy's.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

Stocks held up on March 13 after some ugly early action that saw the S&P 500 (SPX) down about 1.3%. The index rallied almost 100 points by late morning before selling off over the balance of the day. It was a great session for day traders, but created more agita for the rest of us. The morning low coincided with chart support in the 3,780-3,810 region from the late-December low. On March 14, gains were solid and broad-based.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Sonoco Products Co. (SON); Arista Networks Inc (ANET); Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) and the Focus List deletions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Huntington Bancshares, Inc. (HBAN); Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR); HubSpot Inc (HUBS).

In Monday's commentary, we talked about one of the things missing from this potential new bull market -- namely, a lockout rally. Persistent strength is a common theme after "the" low is in. In 1982, the 13-week rate-of-change (ROC) after the bottom was 37% and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose in 10 of those 13 weeks. Off the secondary low in early 1991, the 14W ROC was 22% with 10 of 14 weeks positive. In 1998, the 13W gain was 30% and the "500" rose in 10 of 13 weeks. After the technology meltdown, the 13W bounce off the 2003 low was 20%, with 10 of 13 weeks on the upside. After the financial crises, we witnessed a 38% rally in 2009, with the index rising in 11 of 13 weeks. Following the 2011 secondary low, the 16W rate-of-change was 22%, with advances in 13 of 16 weeks.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, PCE Price Index, will be released today. This index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index in that its composition is changed more frequently and is thus quicker to reflect the impact of real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most-recent report, from December, PCE inflation was reported at 5.0% (the latest CPI report, from January, had inflation at 6.4%). At Argus, we forecast a rate of 5.0% for the January PCE Price Index. Core PCE, which removes food and energy prices, was 4.4% in the latest month. We expect Core PCE to remain steady at 4.4% this month. Inflation appears to have peaked during the summer and is continuing to decline, though the rate of decline may slow in the months ahead. We track 21 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 4.2% rate year-over-year, down from 4.7% a month ago and 8.7% six months ago. Focusing on core inflation (which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy, the core GDP PCE Price Index, the five-year forward inflation expectation rate and the 10-year TIPs Break-even Interest Rate), our reading is 3.7%, down from 3.9% last month. We note some movement among our components. Producer Prices appear to be cooling, with substantial declines in PPI Final Demand and Intermediate Prices for Unprocessed Goods. The rate of wage increases also is stable/slowing. But the Sticky Price Index is drifting higher. Investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes ultimately will tame inflation, with the three-year forward expectation rate now down to 2.7% and the five-year forward expectation rate at 2.3%.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released by the BEA today. The PCE Index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index in that its components are more variable and are quicker to reflect real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most recent report, from October, PCE inflation was reported at 6.0% (the latest CPI report, from November, had inflation at 7.1%). At Argus, we forecast a rate of 5.7% for the November PCE Price Index. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, was 5.0% in the latest month. We expect the Core PCE to tick lower to 4.8% this month. We track 21 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 4.7% rate year-over-year, down from 5.2% last month and from 8.7% six months ago. Focusing on core inflation, our reading is 4.0%, down slightly from our 4.2% reading last month. We note some movement among our components. Producer Prices appear to be cooling off, with substantial declines in PPI Intermediate Prices for Processed and Unprocessed Goods. The rate of wage increases also is slowing down. Looking ahead, investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes will ultimately tame inflation, with the three-year forward expectation rate now down to 3.0% and the five-year forward expectation rate at 2.1%.

As earnings season began in mid-October, insider sentiment was solidly positive and we wrote the following: 'Insiders just won't give in to the dire mood on Wall Street.' Over the next three weeks, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research turned in a cautious direction based on light transaction volume (with insiders broadly prohibited from trading during earnings season). Now, with earnings season drawing to a close and insiders starting to trade again, the rubber meets the road.

From the view of a chartist with an economic background, the Fed often might do more harm than good - especially when it is late to tighten and late to ease. One could argue that if the Fed simply watched and quickly followed market rates, goals could be achieved more quickly. Often, it seems, the central bank lets the economy get out of control on the upside and then economic contractions become far worse than they should.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released by the BEA today. The PCE Price Index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index in that its components are more variable and are quicker to reflect real-time pricing fluctuations. In August, PCE inflation was reported at 6.2% (the latest CPI report, from September, was 8.2%). At Argus, we forecast a rate of 6.0% for the September PCE Price Index. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, was 4.9% in August. We expect a tick lower to 4.8% in September. Overall, inflation appears to have peaked during the summer and may be starting to decline. We track 21 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 6.8% rate year-over-year, down from 7.1% last month and from 8.7% three months ago. Drilling down to core inflation (which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy, the core GDP PCE Price Index, the Five-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate, and the 10-year TIPs Break-even Interest Rate), our reading is 4.2%, essentially in line with a 4.1% reading last month. We note some movement among our components. Producer Prices appear to be cooling, with substantial declines in PPI Intermediate Prices for Processed and Unprocessed Goods. The rate of wage increases also is slowing down. Looking farther out, investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes ultimately will corral inflation, with the Five-Year Forward Expectation Rate now down at 2.3%.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Fox Corporation (FOXA); Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Target Corp (TGT) and the Focus List deletions are Alphabet Inc (GOOGL); Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); SVB Financial Group (SIVB); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX).

This year is turning into one of the worst for the S&P 500. At Monday's close, the year-to-date (YTD) return excluding dividends was an abysmal -24.2%. Over the past 30 years, this loss was exceeded only in 2008, when the "500" collapsed 38.5% during the financial crisis. The index is just a tick worse than 2002, when it declined 23.4%. Even after all these losses this year, we still do not know whether we are even in a recession yet -- and corporate earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have not been cut very much.

Healthcare is a sector that includes many categories and investing disciplines. It is innovative, can be either growth or value, and can involve start-ups or mature companies. A healthcare company can be built around one product that is leveraged in broad and creative ways, or a company with depth, breadth and products that have many touchpoints. Many of the companies are truly science-based, some with managers who are stronger as scientists than as executives running a company; others have scientists focus on science while practiced managers mind the books. The Healthcare sector accounts for 15% of the S&P 500, with an overall market cap of $1.4 trillion dollars. Subsectors include Biotechnology, Healthcare Distributors, Healthcare Equipment, Healthcare Supplies, Life Sciences Tools and Services, Managed Healthcare, and Pharmaceuticals. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and consider allocating about 15% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in the sector. Healthcare is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 14% compared to the 25% loss for the S&P 500. The following are some Argus BUY-rated Healthcare companies. The stocks were selected using the Argus screening tool and the following criteria: BUY-rated; large-cap (greater than $8 billion market capitalization); a Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or High; and paying a dividend. We feel these companies currently are best in class for the sector. Some are also part of our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional).

The broad market selloff on September 13 still feels raw, and the Federal Reserve has left no doubt that it will fight inflation vigorously for as long as it takes. Stocks, and likely many portfolios, are feeling some pain. In volatile times like these, when selling is widespread, a classic investing strategy is to focus on “best in class” stocks. These are the strongest and most-stable stocks in each sector -- and by looking across sectors, diversification can also be achieved. To get our list this week, we ran multiple screens. We started with the Argus Min-Vol theme model portfolio. As the name suggests, that portfolio includes companies that likely can best withstand market fluctuations. We then shortlisted the group by also screening for financial strength and dividend yield. And, finally, we picked one stock from each of the 11 S&P sectors. The following stocks are our Best in Class for Safety recommendations for September 2022, and all of them currently carry an Argus BUY rating.

The S&P 500 ran into key resistance recently at the 4,175 region and, so far, the pause looks like it could be a bull flag. The index has come a long way, so we will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt in the short term. Of course, a break of the flag to the upside would bring the next piece of resistance into view at 4,225, which is a 50% retracement of the bear market.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

The U.S. dollar (USD), which bottomed at 90 in late 2020 and May 2021, has been in a nice uptrend ever since. The greenback hit 107 on Wednesday, its highest level since 12/2002. So much for protecting your purchasing power with gold, silver, or Bitcoin, which have been slaughtered. Not too long ago, there was much talk about the USD heading a lot lower and losing its status as the global currency.

Stocks have struggled in 2Q 2022, with the S&P 500 on its way to a double-digit drop for the period. Absent the rally in recent days, the decline would be closer to 20%. Growth stocks have again been the weakest performers, as sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary all have lagged the major market indices. The leading sectors were value-oriented, including Energy, Consumer Staples, Basic Materials, and Utilities. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage has declined 13.1% thus far during the quarter, and the median stock declined 12.5%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 12.6%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 14.4%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2022? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy and Basic Materials? Given interest rates that remain historically low, we expect growth stocks to resume outperformance over time, and think 2022 may be a "one-in-five year" that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Concerning sectors, our current Over-Weights are Energy, Financial, Healthcare, Industrials, and Basic Materials. Here are the top-10 and bottom-five performers from the Argus Universe in 2Q.

Following April's miserable performance, May isn't shaping up much better, at least so far. The S&P 500 took a 9% drubbing into April, and 14 trading days into the new month the index is off another (almost) 6%. Since its closing peak on January 3 at 4,796.56, the "500" made a minor new low on Thursday and is down 896 points (or 18.7)%. The Nasdaq has declined 29% from its November 2021 closing high, while the Nasdaq 100 is off 28%.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid more earnings reports from major retailers. Target shares plunged 24% after the company reported much weaker than expected 1Q earnings and warned of further pressure from rising fuel and freight costs. Lowe's shares also fell, despite above-consensus earnings, as investors focused on the company's disappointing comps sales. The Dow fell 1.9%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.3%. Crude oil fell 1% to $111.50 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1812 per ounce.

Monday was yet another washout day, as the major indices lost 3% to 4% -- with the heaviest losses in Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Basic Materials, Healthcare, and Communication Services. More of the same.

Our rating on the Healthcare sector is Over-Weight. Consumers are now more willing to spend on lifestyle enhancements along with necessary spending on life-saving treatments. In addition, the survival of the Affordable Care Act has kept the ranks of insured U.S. citizens above the historical average, further increasing consumer spending on healthcare services and products. Meanwhile, companies with experience in diagnostic testing, vaccines, and antiviral medicines, as well as suppliers of protective equipment and other hospital products, should benefit from efforts to contain the pandemic. The sector accounts for 13.7% of the S&P 500, and includes companies in the pharmaceuticals, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurance industries. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2022, with a gain of 1.3% through early April, while the S&P 500 has declined 6%. The following are examples of how we use our analysts' Healthcare sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning, giving up some of Tuesday's gains, led by declines in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Retail sales data was stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% in January, above the consensus estimate of 2.0%, after a 2.5% decline in in December. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $95 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1863 per ounce.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

The stock market moved higher last week during the busiest days of earnings season. Tech stocks far outperformed blue chips, though a portion of the outperformance was attributable to Tesla, as its stock is included in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, but not the DJIA. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 89 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 was up 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.33%. For the week, the DJIA was up 143 points, or 0.40%, the S&P 500 was up 1.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.70%. For the YTD, the DJIA is up 17.03%, the S&P 500 is up 22.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 20.25%.

This edition features the continuing shift to software; biopharma capital allocation; rising ransomware attacks; and new coverage of Stem, Keysight, and Carlyle Group.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features sportswear in the pandemic; SPACs and investment banks; seatmaker Adient; and notes from Merck and new coverage GDS Holdings and Paychex.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.