Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following the January jobs report. In January, nonfarm payroll employment rose 353,000 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The jobs count is up from 216,000 in December and well ahead of the expected 185,000, and the belief had been that unemployment would inch up to 3.8%. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow was nearly flat and the Nasdaq gained 1.5%. Crude oil traded just above $72 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $2053 per ounce.

First Look at 3Q23 Earnings: The Beat Goes On

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

With July 2023 now in the books, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 have all risen for five consecutive months, tacking on 16%, 25%, and 31%, respectively. For the month, the '500' rose 3%, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P MidCap 400 all gained 4%, and the Russell 2000 popped 6%.

June has delivered quite a charge to the stock market -- and while the 2023 leaders (Tech, Communication Services, and Discretionary) are still crushing the other S&P 500 sectors, some of those other sectors have come to life. This tells us that the stock market is broadening (not a bad thing) and that some funds from the leadership sectors are rotating to areas that have been mostly ignored this year. Rotation is the lifeblood of most bull markets, as it is unsustainable to have only a few stocks do all the heavy lifting The key to rotation is that money stays in the market, but moves among different sectors and industries.

In the typically strong month of April, the stock market laid an egg -- with most of the major indices posting minimal returns, and the small- and mid-cap stocks losing minor ground. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Nasdaq was flat, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the big winner, up 2.5%. The S&P MidCap 400 fell 0.80% and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.8%, thanks to heavy exposure to small- and mid-sized banks.

In the typically strong month of April, the stock market laid an egg -- with most of the major indices posting minimal returns, and the small- and mid-cap stocks losing minor ground. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Nasdaq was flat, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the big winner, up 2.5%. The S&P MidCap 400 fell 0.80% and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.8%, thanks to heavy exposure to small- and mid-sized banks.

The stock market held up again last week, despite additional bearish news about the global banking system. This time, Europe imploded (after already having booked a nasty decline). Indeed, once contagion starts, it generally does not stop on a dime -- but rather continues down an increasingly negative path.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 had a narrow-range day after Tuesday's blood bath and held right at the support level we have discussed (in the 3,980 region). This is the location of a convergence of two trendlines -- the 50- and 200-day simple averages, and the 21-week exponential average. Interest rates across the curve also traded in a narrow range, with the two-, five-, and 10-year Treasury yields all tracing out inside days as well as doji candlesticks. These formations represent indecision and many times lead to reversals in the short- to intermediate-term trend. In other words, yields may have peaked, but we certainly would like to see more evidence. And that would certainly help stocks.

Stocks extended their Fed-driven rally on Thursday, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors. Meta Platforms jumped 23%, despite disappointing 4Q earnings, as investors focused on the company's better-than-expected revenue, cost-cutting efforts, and new share buyback plan. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ended January 28, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The data came ahead of the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The consensus estimate calls for 185,000 new payroll jobs, down from 223,000 in December, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.5% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P rose 1.47%, and the Nasdaq soared 3.25%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1927 per ounce.

With the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 up 6% so far in 2023, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 higher by 11%, the S&P 400 popping 8%, and the Russell 2000 gaining 9%, the overall market is off to a good start (especially after 2022). All those indices have jumped above their 200-day averages, though some by only a very minor amount. All but the S&P 100 also have broken their bear-market trendlines -- but, again, by very small margins.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday's short-lived rally. The selloff came after the Commerce Department raised its estimate of third-quarter GDP growth to 3.2% from a prior 2.9% - raising concerns about further aggressive Fed rate hikes. On the earnings front, Micron Technologies fell 4% after the company posted a wider-than-expected adjusted loss in fiscal 1Q, issued weak second-quarter guidance, and announced substantial job cuts. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.8%, and the Nasdaq 2.6%. Crude oil fell slightly to $78 per barrel, while gold fell $21 to $1805 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings Roll On

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by declines in the Energy and Consumer Staples sectors. First-time unemployment claims rose by 6,000 to 260,000 for the week ended July 30 and were slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose by 48,000 to 1.416 million. On the earnings front, Conoco posted better-than expected second-quarter results and said that it would substantially boost returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1804 per ounce.

Short-term breadth was strong during the late-May rally. However, long-term measures of breadth take time to turn from bearish readings, so we don't have enough evidence to say that the final low is in. Recently, NYSE advancing volume/total volume put in three straight 80% days and the NYSE advancers/total issues registered two 80% days. That is considered a breadth thrust and one of the hallmarks of a market bottom.

April provided a miserable market performance, and May isn't shaping up much better (at least so far). The S&P 500 took a 9% drubbing into May, and nine days into the new month, the "500" is already off almost 5%. For 2022, the benchmark index has declined 836 points or 17.5%. Another bad day and we can call it a bear market (down 20%) -- although the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 (as well as thousands of individual names) already have fallen 20%, with many down more than 50%.

April was a brutal month for stocks, with few equities escaping unscathed. The S&P 500 fell almost 11%, the Nasdaq and the QQQs both plummeted 15.6%, the DJIA fell 7%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 12.6%, and the S&P MidCap 400 dropped 10%. It was the worst month for the Nasdaq and QQQs since October 2008.

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We are lowering our intermediate-term (I.T.) technical outlook to bearish from neutral. Most of the major stocks (top 10) in the S&P 500 and the QQQs are on I.T sell signals. Other than the AAII, we haven't seen another big pickup in bearish sentiment -- even though there is a lot of bearish commentary by professionals out there. Breadth remains an issue, as the percentage of stocks in the major indices that are trading above their 200-day average is at 60% or below. Leadership remains an issue with energy-related and defensive sectors leading this year. Yields have gone further than expected across the entire curve, but are almost certainly due for a pullback.

Recent data illustrates that GDP is still expanding (despite the pandemic), but not consistently across all segments of the economy. We don't anticipate a recession in the near term, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be the pandemic. Trends have been positive in recent weeks, as the impact of the Omicron variant has peaked. The domestic employment environment is in better shape than it was a year ago, although consumer confidence trends are mixed. Auto sales have recovered from pandemic lows. Businesses are expanding. The U.S. housing market has been a positive contributer to the economic recovery from the pandemic, and while high prices have cooled the market a bit many metrics remain positive. Geopolitical tensions in Europe and a rising dollar will likely slow export growth. Meanwhile, the Fed is poised to take steps to cool inflation (and the economy). Rolling all the data up, our model now calls for a 1.8% GDP increase in 1Q22. On an annual basis, our forecast for overall GDP growth is now 2.8% in 2022, down from our prior forecast of 3.1%. Our estimates are a bit lower than other forecasters: The IMF is anticipating 2022 growth of 4.0%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 3.9% in 2022. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, though, is 0.9% for 1Q221.

Stocks plunged on Thursday amid weak earnings and disappointing guidance from Facebook owner Meta Platforms, which warned of increased competition and a substantial revenue hit from Apple's new advertising tracking policy. FB shares fell more than 26%. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 238,000 for the week ended January 29, down from 261,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 245,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.628 million, down from the prior week but slightly above consensus. The Dow fell 1.45%, the S&P 2.44%, and the Nasdaq 3.74%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1806 per ounce.

This is among our most-important themes for 2022, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid all the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important as the pandemic upends the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. Here are 12 stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY list. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the Industrial sector appear well-positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery, and electrical equipment. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 13.5%. It also underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors weighed new GDP and employment data along with 3Q earnings reports from a range of major companies. The Commerce Department said that 3Q GDP rose just 2.0%, down from 6.7% in 2Q and below the Reuters consensus of 2.7%. First-time unemployment claims fell to a new pandemic-era low of 281,000, down from 291,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 288,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.243 million from 2.480 million a week earlier, and were also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 1.39%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1800 per ounce.

Recent data illustrates that the economy is still expanding, though some white-hot growth rates in certain sectors are starting to cool. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be the country's physical health, as the nation recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Trends here have turned negative in recent weeks. The employment environment is in better shape than it was a year ago, though still far from full strength, and consumer confidence is mixed. Auto sales have recovered, but inventories are low due to bottle-necks. And the housing market, which had been strong in 1H21, is starting to cool as house prices soar. Rolling the data up, and taking into account rising COVID cases as well as emerging supply chain issues and inventory levels, our model now calls for 5.8% increase in GDP in 3Q21. We also expect good growth in 4Q, before rates fall somewhat more sharply in 2022. On an annual basis, we look for overall GDP growth of approximately 6.1 % in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022. Our estimates are consistent with consensus forecasts and the outlook from the Federal Reserve, which call for growth of 4%-6% in 2021. The GDPNow forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 6.3% for 3Q21.

The stock market was flat to down last week as positive earnings surprises proved to be baked-in. Tech stocks modestly underperformed blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 149 points, or 0.42%. The S&P 500 was down 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.71%. For the week, the DJIA was down 126 points, or 0.36%, the S&P 500 was down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.11%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.14%, the S&P 500 is up 17.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 13.85%.

Recent economic data illustrates that conditions are improving, though serious risks remain. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be the country's physical health. Right now, the country has moved beyond the "third wave" of cases. The employment environment is in better shape than it was a year ago, though still far from full strength, and consumer confidence is improving. We expect that rising confidence levels will lead to continued growth in consumer spending. Auto sales have recovered, and the housing market remains strong, even as interest rates tick higher. Businesses are again expanding. Our model now calls for a 2.1% increase in absolute GDP in 2Q21 from 1Q21, which translates to an annualized gain of 9.1%, up from our prior forecast of 8.9%. We expect improvement into 2H21. On an annual basis, we look for overall GDP growth of approximately 5.7% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Our estimates are consistent with consensus forecasts and the outlook from the Federal Reserve, which call for growth of 4%-6% in 2021. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 8.6% for 2Q21.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

April 2021 lived up to its billing as the best stock month of the first half. During April, the S&P 500 appreciated 5.2%, better than any month so far this year; March was closest with a 4.2% gain. Through the end of the fourth month, the S&P 500 is up 11.3% year-to-date.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Recent economic data illustrates that conditions are improving, though serious risks remain. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be the country's physical health, as the nation battles COVID-19. Right now, vaccines are on the way. The employment environment is in better shape than it was nine months ago, though still far from a position of strength (as it had been prior to the pandemic), and consumer confidence is improving. We expect that rising confidence will lead to continued growth in consumer spending. Auto sales have recovered, and the housing market remains strong, even as interest rates tick higher. Businesses are again expanding. Rolling all the data up, our GDP model now calls for a 1.6% increase in absolute GDP in 1Q21 from 4Q20, which translates to an annualized gain of 6.0%. We expect further absolute improvement into 2021. On an annual basis, we look for overall GDP growth of approximately 4.4% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Our estimates are consistent with consensus forecasts and the outlook from the Federal Reserve, which calls for growth of 4%-6% in 2021.

There's nothing like a week-long selling jag to get the bullish juices flowing once again. After the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high at 3,855 on 1/25/21, GameStop hysteria seized the market. A relatively small set of retail investors, embracing YOLO (you only live once), pushed GME to unsustainable highs in the mid-$300s. Although this occurred among a small group of investors in a small set of stocks, fear grew that an equity asset bubble had been discovered, and broad selling took over. By 1/29/21, the final trading day in January, the S&P 500 had fallen 3.7% or by about 140 points.

The U.S. economy soared at a 33.1% annual rate in 3Q20, rebounding from a 31.4% annualized drop in 2Q20 and a 5.0% annualized slide in 1Q20. The numbers are a bit hard to grasp, reflecting the unique approach of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using simple math (going from absolute GDP level quarter-to-quarter, instead of annualizing) we note that the value of U.S. GDP in 3Q20 of $21.157 trillion was 8.4% higher than the $19.52 trillion value in 2Q20. That 2Q20 value was 9.5% lower than the 1Q20 value of $21.56 trillion. The high-water mark for U.S. GDP was $21.75 trillion in 4Q19. So the current GDP, which grew both 33% and 8% in 3Q, is still about 3% below the pre-pandemic level. In our view, 3Q20 represents a substantial (but not complete) recovery in GDP, and we think the numbers are going to improve. How rapidly that happens depends on the health of the country. Right now, as another wave of COVID-19 strikes many regions of the U.S., the outlook for a continued sharp recovery is at risk. Our forecasts call for a 1.5% increase in absolute GDP in 4Q from 3Q, which translates in our model to an annualized gain of 6.0%. We expect further absolute improvement into 1H21, before the economy stabilizes near pre-pandemic levels in 2H21. Our GDP model now calls for overall GDP growth of 1% in 2020 and 3.6% in 2021.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, recovering some of their losses after Wednesday's sharp selloff. GDP data was strong. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, a reversal from the 2Q decline of 31.4%. The reading was also above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 32.0%. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 751,000 for the week ended October 24, down from 791,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 770,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $36 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1872 per ounce.

We think 2Q20 marked the trough of the recession, and the numbers are going to improve through year-end and into 2021. How rapidly the numbers improve, as we have said, depends on the health of the country, which is now enduring a resurgence of COVID-19 in many regions. As can be expected given all the uncertainty, economists' forecasts are all over the map. Federal Reserve forecasts call for a 6.5% GDP decline in 2020, a 5.0% rebound in 2021, and another year of above-trend growth (at 3.5%) in 2022. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast calls for a 3Q rebound of 34.6%. Our quarterly forecasts call for a 6.8% increase in absolute GDP in 3Q from 2Q, which translates in our model to an annualized gain of 30.3%. Our annual forecasts now call for overall GDP to decline about 1% in 2020 and rebound 4.6% in 2021. The economic data that has emerged in recent weeks -- ranging from consumer confidence and spending, to housing statistics and auto sales, as well as to manufacturing surveys and even financial markets -- illustrates that conditions are improving. Still, serious risks remain.

We think 2Q20 marked the trough of the recession, and the numbers are going to improve through year-end and into 2021. How rapidly the numbers improve, as we have said, depends on the health of the country, which is now enduring a resurgence of COVID-19 in many regions. As can be expected given all the uncertainty, economists' forecasts are all over the map. Federal Reserve forecasts call for a 6.5% GDP decline in 2020, a 5.0% rebound in 2021, and another year of above-trend growth (at 3.5%) in 2022. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast calls for a 3Q rebound of 34.6%. Our quarterly forecasts call for a 6.8% increase in absolute GDP in 3Q from 2Q, which translates in our model to an annualized gain of 30.3%. Our annual forecasts now call for overall GDP to decline about 1% in 2020 and rebound 4.6% in 2021. The economic data that has emerged in recent weeks -- ranging from consumer confidence and spending, to housing statistics and auto sales, as well as to manufacturing surveys and even financial markets -- illustrates that conditions are improving. Still, serious risks remain.

Often overlooked amid the market's gyrations, dividend income is an important element of total return. Consider recent results: in 2015, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 1.4%, including dividends -- but excluding dividends, the market was down 0.7%. Capital gains were a bit easier to achieve in 2016-17, though we note that dividend payments still contributed about 15%-20% of total return for investors. And dividend payments softened the blow in 2018, when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks, particularly in a slow-growth or recessionary economic environment.

Often overlooked amid the market's gyrations, dividend income is an important element of total return. Consider recent results: in 2015, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 1.4%, including dividends -- but excluding dividends, the market was down 0.7%. Capital gains were a bit easier to achieve in 2016-17, though we note that dividend payments still contributed about 15%-20% of total return for investors. And dividend payments softened the blow in 2018, when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks, particularly in a slow-growth or recessionary economic environment.

This is among our most important themes for 2020, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are delivering three important signals amid all the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important as the pandemic upends the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. Here are 13 stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also new holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

This is among our most important themes for 2020, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are delivering three important signals amid all the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important as the pandemic upends the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. Here are 13 stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also new holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Did the U.S. economy decline at a 32.9% rate in 2Q20? Or did the economy fall 9.5% from the 1Q20 level in 2Q20? Both statements are correct. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's first reading of the data, the U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% rate in 2Q20 -- as the nation shut down to combat the coronavirus. This is an annualized rate and is calculated over four quarters. However, the absolute level of the economy fell to $19.4 trillion from $21.6 trillion. Either way you look at it -- down 33% annualized, or missing $2.2 trillion -- the numbers are painful. The decline was the worst ever reported in 70 years of GDP history, and wiped out five years of growth. We think this 2Q marks the trough of the recession, and the numbers are going to improve through year-end and into 2021. How rapidly the numbers improve depends on the health of the country. Right now, as a second wave of COVID-19 strikes many regions of the U.S., the outlook for a sharp, sustainable recovery is questionable. Our forecasts call for a 6% increase in absolute GDP in 3Q from 2Q, which translates in our model to an annualized decline of 3%. We expect improvement toward 4Q20/1Q21, and then a spike in 2Q21. Our forecasts call for overall GDP to decline 10.4% in 2020 and rebound 5.5% in 2021.

Did the U.S. economy decline at a 32.9% rate in 2Q20? Or did the economy fall 9.5% from the 1Q20 level in 2Q20? Both statements are correct. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's first reading of the data, the U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% rate in 2Q20 -- as the nation shut down to combat the coronavirus. This is an annualized rate and is calculated over four quarters. However, the absolute level of the economy fell to $19.4 trillion from $21.6 trillion. Either way you look at it -- down 33% annualized, or missing $2.2 trillion -- the numbers are painful. The decline was the worst ever reported in 70 years of GDP history, and wiped out five years of growth. We think this 2Q marks the trough of the recession, and the numbers are going to improve through year-end and into 2021. How rapidly the numbers improve depends on the health of the country. Right now, as a second wave of COVID-19 strikes many regions of the U.S., the outlook for a sharp, sustainable recovery is questionable. Our forecasts call for a 6% increase in absolute GDP in 3Q from 2Q, which translates in our model to an annualized decline of 3%. We expect improvement toward 4Q20/1Q21, and then a spike in 2Q21. Our forecasts call for overall GDP to decline 10.4% in 2020 and rebound 5.5% in 2021.

Stocks rose on Friday, capping off a mixed week for the major indices. Equity index performance returned to the pattern that was common during the first 12 weeks of the recovery, as growth stocks outperformed blue chips. Economic readings, though plentiful, were overshadowed by big-tech earnings news. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 115 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 increased 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.5%. For the full week, the Dow fell 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq increased 3.7%. For the year-to-date, losses are now 7.4% for the Dow, while the S&P is up 1.3% and the Nasdaq is up 19.8%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is up 11.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 34.3%. July is usually a strong stock month, and this year was no exception as the S&P 500 rose 5.5%.

Stocks rose on Friday, capping off a mixed week for the major indices. Equity index performance returned to the pattern that was common during the first 12 weeks of the recovery, as growth stocks outperformed blue chips. Economic readings, though plentiful, were overshadowed by big-tech earnings news. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 115 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 increased 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.5%. For the full week, the Dow fell 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq increased 3.7%. For the year-to-date, losses are now 7.4% for the Dow, while the S&P is up 1.3% and the Nasdaq is up 19.8%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is up 11.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 34.3%. July is usually a strong stock month, and this year was no exception as the S&P 500 rose 5.5%.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, prior to the pandemic, had expanded to record levels. And now the U.S. Healthcare industry is mobilizing to improve COVID-19 testing, treatments and, ultimately, a vaccine. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not have recently completed a 10-year expansion phase before the coronavirus hit, and capital would not be flooding into the country. A couple of statistics should help illustrate our point. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $22 trillion in 2019. That's growth of 22-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than 3-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven in large part by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2018 was approximately $32 trillion, representing 41% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 25% of global GDP.

This is among our most-important themes for 2020, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid all the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important as the pandemic upends the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. The following are nine stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also new holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

This is among our most-important themes for 2020, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid all the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important as the pandemic upends the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. The following are nine stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also new holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

April was almost -- but not quite -- in the books when the hopeful sentiment that lifted stocks began to fade. Now, May lies ahead and many-times burned investors are wondering, again, if they should sell in May and go away.

April was almost -- but not quite -- in the books when the hopeful sentiment that lifted stocks began to fade. Now, May lies ahead and many-times burned investors are wondering, again, if they should sell in May and go away.