The stock market finally saw a little reversion to the mean on Friday, March 8, as the most-loved stock and industry was whacked. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.5%, its worst day since May 2023. This followed huge advances of 95% since January 3 and 130% since October 2023. Over six days (ending March 7), the shares rose more than 19%. At Friday's intraday high, NVDA hit $974 and then was slammed down to $865 by 1:35 pm.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The third-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 6.3% gain, year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 1.0% expected at the start of the earnings period, and should be enough to end the "earnings recession" that investors have endured over the past three quarters. Propelling the 3Q outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services, up 46%, while Energy again (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 33%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Fed's afternoon policy statement and follow-up comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. Given the impact of previous rate hikes and high Treasury yields, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady while leaving open the possibility of a further increase in December or in early 2024. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $83 per barrel, while gold traded near $1994 per ounce.

Another Fed week is here, but it should be one of the tamest since 2021 -- before the central bank began its tightening cycle. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is virtually no chance that the FOMC will move the fed funds target from the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. But unless Jerome Powell says that hikes are a thing of the past, there should be building anticipation about the next meeting on November 1 -- when the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) hike is 31%. This rises to 37% for the last 2023 meeting on December 13. Looking out to June 2024, there is a fairly even chance the fed funds range will be at the same level as today or 25 bps lower.

The stock market continues to be pressured by longer-term Treasury yields, with the 10-year breaking out on Thursday and the 30-year on Wednesday. While the dollar was flat Thursday, it remains in an uptrend off mid-July lows. There has been a subtle change in the Treasury market in recent weeks versus what we saw in the latter part of 2021, in 2022, and in early 2023. The 10- and 30-year yields have moved above their March and July highs, while the two- and five-year have not.

Hot July: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Over the past six days, we have witnessed some crazy moves in the Treasury market across the curve. Back on July 5 and 6, both the five- and ten-year yields broke out of downward channels that have been in place since 10/2022. At the time, we said one of two things was happening: either an important technical breakout with yields going much higher, or a bunch of sell stops that triggered just as prices were breaking below their channels.

Stocks finished mostly lower on Thursday amid more signs of weakness at regional banks, continued debt ceiling concerns, and new inflation and employment data. The Labor Department's producer price index showed progress against inflation, as prices rose at a slower annual rate in April. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits also rose from the prior week, pointing to a tighter labor market. On the earnings front, Disney shares dropped nearly 9% after the company reported disappointing earnings and a decline in Disney+ subscribers. The Dow fell 0.66%, the S&P fell 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.18%. Crude oil traded near $71.50 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $2021 per ounce.

Gaming is growing, both for brick and mortar casinos and for platforms that offer gambling online, including sports betting. At Argus Research, we have BUY ratings on certain gaming stocks -- but are being highly selective at this time. Travel and lodging are making a comeback after COVID-19. Bookings are up across many travel sectors, including airlines and with online booking agencies like Airbnb, Expedia, and Booking Holdings. The big hotel chains confirm that travel demand is up as well. Marriott says leisure travel and group travel are now above pre-pandemic levels and business travel is at 90%. Gaming revenues have been up for 24 consecutive months, according to the American Gaming Association. All gaming segments -- slots, table games, sports betting, iGaming -- show growth. Legislation is also loosening in many states, allowing for more casinos. China lifted long-held COVID-19 restrictions, boosting Macau. Metrics for Las Vegas are up for many indicators, and last week MGM won approval to build a massive new integrated project in Japan, which includes the first casino in the country. Marketing efforts are paying off for online gaming platforms, building awareness and brand loyalty. Below are the select gaming stocks on which we have a BUY rating. Also listed is our Financial Strength rating (with some at Low or Medium Low, which is lower than we normally like). We also show the price performance for the year-to-date.

The stock market has pretty much been dancing to the bond market's tune in 2023. Bond yields decline, and stocks rise as they did in January. Bond yields rise, and stocks fall as they have done in February. Investors may be 'getting used to' higher rates, because stocks have held a portion of their January gains even with the return of interest rates to the beginning-of-year-levels.

Last week, we wrote 'volatility in stocks remains the order of the day -- and that same volatility remains evident in the short-term insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research.' We also noted that the volume of insider-transactions is very low and therefore less meaningful, with earnings season in full swing and insiders broadly prohibited from trading. All that remains true this week.

Stocks surged on Thursday following positive inflation data, recording their strongest one-day advance since 2020. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.7% from the prior year in October, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus forecast of 7.9%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose at a lower-than-expected 6.3% rate. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 5, slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose to 1.493 million, also up from the prior week and above consensus. The Dow soared 3.70%, the S&P 5.54%, and the Nasdaq 7.35%. Crude oil rose slightly to $86 per barrel, while gold jumped $47 to $1760 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning on signs of moderating inflation. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 8.5% on a year-over-year basis in July, down from 9.1% in June with help from lower gasoline prices, and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 8.7%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose at a 5.9% rate, unchanged from the June reading. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 2.5%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1813 per ounce.

Earnings, Economy Roll along through Market Wreckage

Stocks fell sharply on Monday morning amid continued concerns about the war in Ukraine and its economic impact. Russian forces intensified their attacks on Ukrainian cities, including civilian targets, while Western countries considered a complete ban on imports of Russian oil and gas. The Dow fell 1.3%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil rose to $119 per barrel, while gold traded near $1986 per ounce.

The stock market moved slightly lower last week as investors eyed inflation metrics and earnings season slowed down. Tech stocks performed similarly to blue chips on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 179 points, or 0.50%. The S&P 500 was up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.00%. For the week, the DJIA was down 228 points, or 0.63%, the S&P 500 was down 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.69%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 17.95%, the S&P 500 is up 24.67%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 23.06%.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. The Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Argus' Outlook for Value Sectors

The second quarter in 2021 was a good one for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 8.5%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage advanced 5.5%, and the median stock gained 4.0%. The average Argus BUY-rated stock increased 6.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 4.0%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps continue their recent strong run? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks will resume outperformance over time -- but think this may be the one year in five when value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well-positioned in 2021.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a positive manufacturing activity report and new housing market data. IHS Markit said that its flash manufacturing PMI rose to 61.5 in the first half of May, up from a final reading of 60.5 in April and above the consensus forecast. The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales fell 2.7% in April to an annualized 5.85 million, below the consensus of 6.09 million. At the same time, the median existing home price rose 19.1% from the prior year to $341,600. On the earnings front, Deere shares rose more than 3% after the farm equipment maker posted strong fiscal 2Q results and raised its full-year earnings guidance. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1876 per ounce.

The stock market has been wracked by rising interest rates, escalating inflation fears, and sharp selling among last year's winning stocks. And for all that, the S&P 500 closed on 3/12/21 with a 5.3% quarter-to-date gain. If that holds, the index in 2021 will more than double its average 2.1% first-quarter gain since 1980. 'If it holds' is a big if, given that stocks staged selloffs in the final weeks of both January and February.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

A few weeks ahead of the 2020 holiday season, we started commenting on insider sentiment that was more cautious than we like to see. Since then, there have been occasional benign indicators, and there are possible one-time events that may be driving the cautious sentiment (portfolio positioning ahead of the quiet holiday weeks, profit-taking at the end of a better-than-normal year for stocks, profit-taking based on stock indices at all-time highs, and final trading opportunities in advance of the 4Q earnings season).

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning amid new retail sales and manufacturing data, a day after rallying on the Moderna vaccine announcement. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, down from 1.6% growth in September and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production rose 1.0% in October, up from 0.1% in September and in line with the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1886 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning, with gains in the Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors and losses in Energy and Financials. Major retail companies will begin to report later in the week. On the housing front, builder confidence, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index, rose 6 points to 78 in August, above the Reuters consensus of 73 and the third straight monthly increase. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose 1% to $42.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $46 to $1996 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning, with gains in the Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors and losses in Energy and Financials. Major retail companies will begin to report later in the week. On the housing front, builder confidence, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index, rose 6 points to 78 in August, above the Reuters consensus of 73 and the third straight monthly increase. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose 1% to $42.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $46 to $1996 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday amid increased trade tensions, new housing market data, and continued heavy job losses. The Labor Department said that 2.44 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, down nearly 250,000 from the prior week but above the consensus of 2.4 million. The new data raised the number of people filing for benefits to 38.6 million since mid-March. Continuing claims, showing workers who have not been rehired, rose by 2.5 million to 25.1 million, also above the consensus forecast. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped 17.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted 4.33 million units, the sharpest drop in nearly 10 years. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P 0.78%, and the Nasdaq 0.97%. Crude oil rose 1% to nearly $34 per barrel, while gold fell $31 to $1721 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday amid increased trade tensions, new housing market data, and continued heavy job losses. The Labor Department said that 2.44 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, down nearly 250,000 from the prior week but above the consensus of 2.4 million. The new data raised the number of people filing for benefits to 38.6 million since mid-March. Continuing claims, showing workers who have not been rehired, rose by 2.5 million to 25.1 million, also above the consensus forecast. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped 17.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted 4.33 million units, the sharpest drop in nearly 10 years. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P 0.78%, and the Nasdaq 0.97%. Crude oil rose 1% to nearly $34 per barrel, while gold fell $31 to $1721 per ounce.

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

Last week was the worst for stocks since the financial crisis. For the week, the S&P 500 plunged 384 points, or 11.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3,583 points, or 12.4%. The S&P 500 started this week 12% from its all-time high. Is a bear market beginning? We don't think so, or at least don't think that stocks will be down too long, as positive fundamentals remain intact. The economy is growing at about a 2% pace; interest rates are at historical lows and the Federal Reserve is ready to act; and corporate earnings are on the upswing, after a down year. Of course, if health officials are unable to contain the coronavirus, then a recession may be coming and a bear market as well. We are somewhat reassured that global health officials have managed previous viral scares such as AIDS, SARS, MERS and Ebola, and stocks have recovered lost ground in a year. So a little bargain hunting may be in order. Here are the 10 BUY-rated stocks under Argus Coverage that dropped the most last week.

Last week was the worst for stocks since the financial crisis. For the week, the S&P 500 plunged 384 points, or 11.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3,583 points, or 12.4%. The S&P 500 started this week 12% from its all-time high. Is a bear market beginning? We don't think so, or at least don't think that stocks will be down too long, as positive fundamentals remain intact. The economy is growing at about a 2% pace; interest rates are at historical lows and the Federal Reserve is ready to act; and corporate earnings are on the upswing, after a down year. Of course, if health officials are unable to contain the coronavirus, then a recession may be coming and a bear market as well. We are somewhat reassured that global health officials have managed previous viral scares such as AIDS, SARS, MERS and Ebola, and stocks have recovered lost ground in a year. So a little bargain hunting may be in order. Here are the 10 BUY-rated stocks under Argus Coverage that dropped the most last week.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning, with gains in the Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors and losses in Energy and Financials. Major retail companies will begin to report later in the week. On the housing front, builder confidence, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index, rose 6 points to 78 in August, above the Reuters consensus of 73 and the third straight monthly increase. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose 1% to $42.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $46 to $1996 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday amid increased trade tensions, new housing market data, and continued heavy job losses. The Labor Department said that 2.44 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, down nearly 250,000 from the prior week but above the consensus of 2.4 million. The new data raised the number of people filing for benefits to 38.6 million since mid-March. Continuing claims, showing workers who have not been rehired, rose by 2.5 million to 25.1 million, also above the consensus forecast. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped 17.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted 4.33 million units, the sharpest drop in nearly 10 years. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P 0.78%, and the Nasdaq 0.97%. Crude oil rose 1% to nearly $34 per barrel, while gold fell $31 to $1721 per ounce.

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

Last week was the worst for stocks since the financial crisis. For the week, the S&P 500 plunged 384 points, or 11.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3,583 points, or 12.4%. The S&P 500 started this week 12% from its all-time high. Is a bear market beginning? We don't think so, or at least don't think that stocks will be down too long, as positive fundamentals remain intact. The economy is growing at about a 2% pace; interest rates are at historical lows and the Federal Reserve is ready to act; and corporate earnings are on the upswing, after a down year. Of course, if health officials are unable to contain the coronavirus, then a recession may be coming and a bear market as well. We are somewhat reassured that global health officials have managed previous viral scares such as AIDS, SARS, MERS and Ebola, and stocks have recovered lost ground in a year. So a little bargain hunting may be in order. Here are the 10 BUY-rated stocks under Argus Coverage that dropped the most last week.

Stocks rose on Friday morning following new retail sales and industrial production data, along with strong earnings and guidance from NetApp. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October after declining 0.3% in September, and topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. On the negative side, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production fell more than expected last month, dropping 0.8% after a 0.3% decline in September. The S&P rose 0.6%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1469 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning following new retail sales and industrial production data, along with strong earnings and guidance from NetApp. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October after declining 0.3% in September, and topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. On the negative side, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production fell more than expected last month, dropping 0.8% after a 0.3% decline in September. The S&P rose 0.6%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1469 per ounce.

Large caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

The major indices are down sharply at midday on Monday as selling continues in response to trade-war escalation and Chinese currency devaluation. Wal-Mart is facing significant scrutiny for selling firearms after a store in Texas was the site of one of this weekend's two mass shootings in the U.S. WeWork is expected to name Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as the lead underwriters for its highly anticipated IPO. Industries doing well today include Construction & Engineering and Metals & Mining. Industries showing weakness include Real Estate Management & Development, Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment, and Entertainment. The VIX is up 3.95 to 21.56 after the previous close of 17.61. The Dow fell 2.0%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to below $54 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to trade near $1477 per ounce.

The major indices are down sharply at midday on Monday as selling continues in response to trade-war escalation and Chinese currency devaluation. Wal-Mart is facing significant scrutiny for selling firearms after a store in Texas was the site of one of this weekend's two mass shootings in the U.S. WeWork is expected to name Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as the lead underwriters for its highly anticipated IPO. Industries doing well today include Construction & Engineering and Metals & Mining. Industries showing weakness include Real Estate Management & Development, Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment, and Entertainment. The VIX is up 3.95 to 21.56 after the previous close of 17.61. The Dow fell 2.0%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to below $54 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to trade near $1477 per ounce.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. Over the years, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2003, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed 457%, compared to an advance of 289% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 11 of the 16 years of this period, growth stocks have topped value stocks. Still, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.9%, compared to the 1.4% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. As well, sometimes the risk profile favors value. For the past five years, the standard deviation of monthly returns for value stocks has been 3.5%, compared to the 3.7% standard deviation of monthly returns for growth stocks. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher. The portfolio includes 40 stocks and representation in all 11 sectors. Not surprisingly, the weights of the sectors are different from the current weights in the S&P 500. As an example, the Argus High-Yield Portfolio has a 15% weighting in Energy, 13% in Consumer Staples and 8% in both Real Estate and Utilities. These are all Over-Weights compared to the broad market. Under-Weighted sectors include Technology (only 3% of the Argus High-Yield Portfolio) and Industrial (5%). The average yield for the portfolio is 4.97%, compared to 1.85% for the S&P 500. The average beta is a sub-market 0.89. Here are the Top 10 Yield Stocks in the Argus High-Yield Portfolio.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. Over the years, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2003, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed 457%, compared to an advance of 289% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 11 of the 16 years of this period, growth stocks have topped value stocks. Still, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.9%, compared to the 1.4% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. As well, sometimes the risk profile favors value. For the past five years, the standard deviation of monthly returns for value stocks has been 3.5%, compared to the 3.7% standard deviation of monthly returns for growth stocks. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher. The portfolio includes 40 stocks and representation in all 11 sectors. Not surprisingly, the weights of the sectors are different from the current weights in the S&P 500. As an example, the Argus High-Yield Portfolio has a 15% weighting in Energy, 13% in Consumer Staples and 8% in both Real Estate and Utilities. These are all Over-Weights compared to the broad market. Under-Weighted sectors include Technology (only 3% of the Argus High-Yield Portfolio) and Industrial (5%). The average yield for the portfolio is 4.97%, compared to 1.85% for the S&P 500. The average beta is a sub-market 0.89. Here are the Top 10 Yield Stocks in the Argus High-Yield Portfolio.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. That might be a retailer fending off Amazon.com; or an energy company tied to the uncertain long-term outlook for demand for fossil fuels; or a newspaper company in the digital advertising age. Some value companies, such as tobacco companies, may face ongoing legal or regulatory risks. And others may be facing problems such as over-aggressive acquisitions, patent expirations or recent earnings stumbles. Based on requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. That might be a retailer fending off Amazon.com; or an energy company tied to the uncertain long-term outlook for demand for fossil fuels; or a newspaper company in the digital advertising age. Some value companies, such as tobacco companies, may face ongoing legal or regulatory risks. And others may be facing problems such as over-aggressive acquisitions, patent expirations or recent earnings stumbles. Based on requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher.

As we wrote this weekly review of insider-trading activity last week, conditions in the stock market seemed wobbly as fear grew that trade tensions between the U.S. and China were kicking into high gear. As such, we wondered if insiders would step in and buy the dip or go all Henny Penny on us and sell stocks as if the sky was indeed going to fall. Now, we have our answer.

As we wrote this weekly review of insider-trading activity last week, conditions in the stock market seemed wobbly as fear grew that trade tensions between the U.S. and China were kicking into high gear. As such, we wondered if insiders would step in and buy the dip or go all Henny Penny on us and sell stocks as if the sky was indeed going to fall. Now, we have our answer.

Based on current short-term (one-week) sell/buy data from Vickers Stock Research, insider sentiment is moving back down towards normal levels after several weeks in which selling spiked to very high levels.

Based on current short-term (one-week) sell/buy data from Vickers Stock Research, insider sentiment is moving back down towards normal levels after several weeks in which selling spiked to very high levels.

Based on current short-term (one-week) sell/buy data from Vickers Stock Research, insider sentiment is moving back down towards normal levels after several weeks in which selling spiked to very high levels.

Large caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, most smaller companies are often more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade wars. For another, the long-term record favors small-caps over large-caps. Since 2003, the Russell 2000 Index has climbed 260%, compared to an advance of 189% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. But small-caps can be risky. Large-caps outperformed small-caps in nine of the 16 years of our test period. Annual returns were negative four times for both indices, but the average decline for small-caps was 18% in down years versus an average 12% annual decline for large-caps in down years. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.29% for small-caps over the 15-year period, versus 3.89% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

The major indices are down sharply at midday on Monday as selling continues in response to trade-war escalation and Chinese currency devaluation. Wal-Mart is facing significant scrutiny for selling firearms after a store in Texas was the site of one of this weekend's two mass shootings in the U.S. WeWork is expected to name Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as the lead underwriters for its highly anticipated IPO. Industries doing well today include Construction & Engineering and Metals & Mining. Industries showing weakness include Real Estate Management & Development, Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment, and Entertainment. The VIX is up 3.95 to 21.56 after the previous close of 17.61. The Dow fell 2.0%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to below $54 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to trade near $1477 per ounce.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. That might be a retailer fending off Amazon.com; or an energy company tied to the uncertain long-term outlook for demand for fossil fuels; or a newspaper company in the digital advertising age. Some value companies, such as tobacco companies, may face ongoing legal or regulatory risks. And others may be facing problems such as over-aggressive acquisitions, patent expirations or recent earnings stumbles. Based on requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher.

Growth stocks may be outperforming, again, in 2019. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to cut again), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. Over the years, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2003, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed 457%, compared to an advance of 289% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 11 of the 16 years of this period, growth stocks have topped value stocks. Still, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.9%, compared to the 1.4% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. As well, sometimes the risk profile favors value. For the past five years, the standard deviation of monthly returns for value stocks has been 3.5%, compared to the 3.7% standard deviation of monthly returns for growth stocks. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research that are BUY- or HOLD-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis and have an average yield of 4.0% or higher. The portfolio includes 40 stocks and representation in all 11 sectors. Not surprisingly, the weights of the sectors are different from the current weights in the S&P 500. As an example, the Argus High-Yield Portfolio has a 15% weighting in Energy, 13% in Consumer Staples and 8% in both Real Estate and Utilities. These are all Over-Weights compared to the broad market. Under-Weighted sectors include Technology (only 3% of the Argus High-Yield Portfolio) and Industrial (5%). The average yield for the portfolio is 4.97%, compared to 1.85% for the S&P 500. The average beta is a sub-market 0.89. Here are the Top 10 Yield Stocks in the Argus High-Yield Portfolio.

As we wrote this weekly review of insider-trading activity last week, conditions in the stock market seemed wobbly as fear grew that trade tensions between the U.S. and China were kicking into high gear. As such, we wondered if insiders would step in and buy the dip or go all Henny Penny on us and sell stocks as if the sky was indeed going to fall. Now, we have our answer.

Based on current short-term (one-week) sell/buy data from Vickers Stock Research, insider sentiment is moving back down towards normal levels after several weeks in which selling spiked to very high levels.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday afternoon on optimism about a possible resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute, though U.S. officials sought to lower expectations about a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in October, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.83%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.72%. Crude oil rose slightly to trade near $56.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1214 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday afternoon on optimism about a possible resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute, though U.S. officials sought to lower expectations about a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in October, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.83%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.72%. Crude oil rose slightly to trade near $56.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1214 per ounce.