The cold hard message is sinking in. Higher rates are here to stay for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said multiple times that the Fed will be 'data-driven' when deciding on monetary policy. And the data has spoken. First, let's look at inflation. There has been great progress made in knocking inflation down from its peak of 9.1% in June of 2022. But achieving progress at the current lower levels, with inflation in the low-3% range, as expected, has been difficult. The Fed has been specific, saying inflation needs to be at 2% before restrictive policy will be eased. The Fed was patient after the January inflation data, and again with February data. But when March showed persistently higher prices, the Fed threw came right out and said that change can wait. Chairman Powell said the following last week. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence..." and "If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." Now let's consider unemployment. The Fed again has been specific. Officials are looking for a 4.1% unemployment rate to gently (hopefully) slow the economy. Currently, the rate is not budging and is vacillating between 3.8% and 3.9%. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, the following is a list of industries and companies we like that should benefit from a sustained period of higher interest rates. All are BUY-rated at Argus.

U.S. stocks were higher on Thursday morning. Initial jobless claims were 212,000 for the latest week, unchanged from the previous-week's revised level. Ongoing unemployment was 1,812,000, virtually unchanged from the previous week. The Dow was up 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. Crude oil is trading above $82 per barrel and gold rose $9 to $2397 per ounce.

We've seen growing evidence of rotation away from mega-cap tech. Indeed, even a textbook 'impressive' beat can lead to a 'sell the news' reaction for these stocks. Betting on more near-term upside from these stocks, no matter what they report, is a tough technical game as they all have extreme 14-day and 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings in the high 70s to mid-80s.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

At midday, U.S. stocks are treading water as investors seemingly await big earnings news that is due out after the close, with Microsft and Alphabet both reporting. Also keeping a lid on trading is pending news from the Federal Reserve that will come on Wednesday afternoon, though it is deemed almost a certainty that interst rates will not be changed. In intraday news, GM shares are solidly higher after the company easily beat expectatiosn for both sales and revenue. As of this writing, the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged, the Dow is slightly higher, and the Nasdaq and Rusell 2000 are both slightly lower. Crude oil and gold are both up, at about 1.2% and 0.35%, respectively.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Black Friday. Cyber Monday. The retailers are out in force, with a massive marketing push to win dollars during this prime shopping time during the holidays. Just like retail, some stocks are seemingly at a big discount right now. Yes, we have our own Black Friday on Wall Street. But shop with care. We look for quality companies with solid books, proven track records, and strong management. This week, we used the Argus screening tool to create a list of companies that have clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, and that we think are also undervalued and offer possible buying opportunities. We sorted the Argus stock universe for companies with a BUY rating, a market cap over $8 billion, and the highest financial strength ratings. Then we looked for those that are furthest away from their 52-week highs, and thus likely offering the deepest discounts. The resulting list is weighted towards Financial. That's not surprising based on the beating that the Financial sector took earlier this year after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Here is our list of recommended Black Friday Stock Deals for November 2023.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks continued to slide on Thursday morning, extending Wednesday's losses ahead of a midday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors weighed a strong 3Q report from Netflix, which reported solid growth in paid subscribers, revenue, and EPS; and an earnings miss from Tesla, along with a range of warnings from CEO Elon Musk. Weekly employment data pointed to a still tight labor market. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended October 14, the lowest level since January and below the Reuters consensus of 212,000. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil fell to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1964 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Monday Tee Up: Another Fed Hike?

Stocks fell on Thursday amid mixed earnings reports and more signs of a slowing economy. The Conference Board said that its Leading Economic Index fell 1.2% in March to 108.4, the lowest level since November 2020. Housing market data was also weak, as existing home sales fell a greater-than-expected 2.4% in March, and weekly unemployment benefit claims pointed to a gradually tightening labor market. On the earnings front, Tesla shares dropped nearly 10% after the automaker reported disappointing first-quarter earnings and raised investor concerns about price cuts and margin pressure. AT&T also fell sharply after reporting slower subscriber growth and weak free cash flow. The Dow fell 0.33%, the

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for corporate earnings, with a fair number of sharp moves in stock prices following above- or below-consensus results or changes in company guidance. Through October 25, Refinitiv reports that 129 S&P 500 companies have announced earnings, with 74% of those coming in ahead of the EPS consensus. The blended (reported and estimated) growth rate for the full quarter, however, is now at 3.3%. That's down from the 4.5% that was expected at the start of the quarter, which is likely a combination of the magnitude of the earnings misses as well as earnings estimates still coming down for those still scheduled to report. Sectors with the strongest beat rates so far have been Healthcare and Communication Services, where 100% of companies reporting have come in ahead of consensus. The biggest laggard has been Consumer Discretionary, where only 47% have exceeded consensus. Energy dominates, with a 119% blended earnings growth rate versus 3Q21, while Financials are at the other end with a 16% earnings decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q22 EPS reporting season.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday as investors weighed earnings reports from a range of major companies, including Caterpillar, Merck, and McDonald's, along with new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6% rate in the third quarter, a reversal after two quarters of declines, helped by stronger-than-expected net exports. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 to 217,000 for the week ended October 22, but were below the Reuters consensus estimate of 223,000. Continuing claims rose to 1.438 million, up from 1.383 million a week earlier and above the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.61%, the S&P fell 0.61%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.63%. Crude oil rose 1% to $89 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1666 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following earnings reports from Tesla, AT&T, and United Airlines, and new weekly employment data. Investors also weighed a rate hike in Europe. The European Central Bank announced a 50-basis-point hike in its benchmark interest rate, more than the 25-basis-point increase that had been expected and the first hike since 2011. The move sent the euro higher against the dollar, though the gains were tempered by political turbulence in Italy following the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil fell nearly 4% to $96 per barrel, while gold traded near $1710 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are SVB Financial Group (SIVB); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Flex Ltd (FLEX); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Discover Financial Services (DFS); NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Target Corp (TGT); Sempra Energy (SRE); Cloudflare Inc (NET).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are SVB Financial Group (SIVB); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Flex Ltd (FLEX); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Discover Financial Services (DFS); NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Target Corp (TGT); Sempra Energy (SRE); Cloudflare Inc (NET).

Stocks rallied on Thursday, recovering from recent sharp losses as investors weighed more 1Q earnings from major companies and new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate in 1Q, below the consensus growth forecast of 1.1% and the first decline since 2Q20. Weekly employment data was better than expected. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 180,000 for the week ended April 23, down from 185,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 184,000. On the earnings front, Meta shares rose more than 17%, despite mixed 1Q results, after the company reported better-than-expected growth in daily active users. The Dow rose 1.85%, the S&P 2.47%, and the Nasdaq 3.06%. Crude oil traded near $105 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1897 per ounce.

This edition features our different tune on Sirius XM, credit card company calculations, China equities, and GoodRx, Carnival, and Adobe.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. Based on positive vaccine developments and actions from the administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes. We also expect insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector accounts for 10.7% of the S&P 500, down from 16.3% following the exclusion of Real Estate stocks. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 9% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 11%-12% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All of the following stocks currently are rated BUY at Argus.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks pared sharp early losses on Friday morning amid mixed fourth-quarter earnings, as interest rate uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment. Netflix shares plunged more than 20%, despite better-than-expected 4Q earnings, after the company projected that it would add 2.5 million streaming subscribers in 1Q, down sharply from the fourth quarter and well below the consensus forecast of 5.9 million. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil fell slightly to $85 per barrel, while gold traded near $1835 per ounce.

Earnings season is in full swing; investors are focused somewhat on results, but mostly on guidance and pandemic developments; and insider-transaction volume is predictably light with corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners mostly sidelined while material, non-public information hits the airwaves. With all that background, what jumps out this week in a review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research?

Cash is no longer king for point-of-sale transactions, with only 12% market share compared to 38% for credit cards, 29% for debit cards, and 10% for the fast-growing digital wallet sector. We see a long secular road for growth, as digital payments are in the early stages of transition. Factors driving this trend include U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve encouraging digital over paper money; the pandemic, which has accelerated contactless payments as a safety step; and greater merchant acceptance for small dollar amounts. Importantly, the emerging generations (Millennials and Gen Z) embrace both mobile banking and digital payments. Forecasts call for digital-payment transaction value to grow at an 11% compound annual rate for the next five years and to reach $11 trillion from the 2020 level of $5.4 trillion. Several companies in the Argus Research fundamental universe of coverage are in position to take advantage of this opportunity. Each of the following stocks is rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fluctuated near breakeven on Thursday morning amid a new round of earnings reports and weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 419,000 for the week ended July 17, up from 368,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 350,000. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to $71 per barrel, while gold traded near $1807 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY.

Consumer confidence fell off the table in April 2020 after the U.S. shut down to combat COVID-19, and then bounced up and down as second and third waves of the virus swept the country. As the percentage of vaccinated Americans continues to increase, the Conference Board recently reported that its Consumer Confidence Index for May held steady month-to-month at 117.2. That's down only slightly from the 130 reading in February 2020. What's next for the consumer? It is worth looking back at the experience during the financial crisis, in 2007-2009. Back in 2007, confidence peaked at 112 in November, before falling sharply and consistently over the next year to a low of 25 in February 2009 as the bear market was bottoming. The index did not reclaim prior highs for another eight years. This time around, the recovery has been much quicker, though the durability of the consumer turnaround will depend on continued improvements in health, the effectiveness of government stimulus programs, and any consumer behavioral changes post-pandemic. From an investment standpoint, we have found that the bottom of the consumer confidence cycle -- when everybody has given up -- is generally a good time to buy. In other words, consumer confidence is often contrarian.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Vontier Corp (VNT); Discover Financial Services (DFS); U.S. Bancorp. (USB); LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) and the Focus List deletions are Linde Plc (LIN); ServiceNow Inc (NOW); Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc (ODFL); Square Inc (SQ).

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. With market optimism rising on positive vaccine developments and the new administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net-interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes, and insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector now accounts for 11.4% of the S&P 500. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 10% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 12%-15% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model portfolios. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell on Thursday afternoon after Bloomberg reported that President Biden would propose raising the capital gains tax rate for people earning at least $1 million. Prior to the tax news, stocks were mixed as investors weighed new 1Q earnings reports, a decline in existing home sales, and weekly employment data. First-time jobless claims fell to 547,000, a new post-pandemic low and below the consensus forecast of 610,000. Continuing claims fell to 3.674 million, down from 3.708 million a week earlier but slightly above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.94%, the S&P 0.92%, and the Nasdaq 0.94%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1784 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After about a month of puzzling sentiment signals from corporate insiders, we finally see some insider-trading data that aligns itself with broader trends in the stock market. By way of a quick review, insiders were more bearish than we expected during the 2020 holiday season. But with the dizzying array of economic, political and global health headlines in play at the time, it was hard to figure what inputs were driving the weak sentiment.

The stock market started October in pretty good fashion, but had a somewhat rough finish in the notoriously volatile month. For the past few months, stocks have wobbled but not broken in what could turn out to be a sideways consolidation with little technical damage. The S&P 500 lost 2.8% in October, with the Nasdaq falling 2.3% and the Nasdaq 100 off by 3%. Smaller stocks fared better, with the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 both up 2.2%.

Stocks fluctuated on Thursday morning amid mixed earnings reports, new weekly employment data, and diminishing prospects for a pre-election stimulus deal. Tesla shares rose after the company posted stronger-than-expected 3Q earnings and reiterated its full-year forecast of 500,000 vehicle deliveries. Coca-Cola shares also rose following above-consensus results, reflecting strength in at-home sales. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 787,000 for the week ended October 17, down from 842,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 870,000. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold fell $29 to $1900 per ounce.

We are raising our Intermediate-Term technical outlook back to Bullish from Neutral. We lowered the outlook on September 18 -- and while all the major indices dribbled lower for a few more days after breaking their respective 50-day averages, the market has made a nice recovery. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 400 MidCap (MDY) and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all recaptured their 21-day exponential and 50-day simple averages. Some indices even made a higher high on Monday.

We are raising our Intermediate-Term technical outlook back to Bullish from Neutral. We lowered the outlook on September 18 -- and while all the major indices dribbled lower for a few more days after breaking their respective 50-day averages, the market has made a nice recovery. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 400 MidCap (MDY) and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all recaptured their 21-day exponential and 50-day simple averages. Some indices even made a higher high on Monday.

Well, most of us knew there would be a bump in the road. We just didn't know exactly when. As we stated Thursday morning, a rubber band can only stretch so far before breaking, and that analogy applies to rising and falling markets. We have been worried about an overheated market, especially the scorching Technology sector, for longer than we care to admit. So while we feel "vindicated" after a day like Thursday, we will not take a bow, as we were far too early.

Well, most of us knew there would be a bump in the road. We just didn't know exactly when. As we stated Thursday morning, a rubber band can only stretch so far before breaking, and that analogy applies to rising and falling markets. We have been worried about an overheated market, especially the scorching Technology sector, for longer than we care to admit. So while we feel "vindicated" after a day like Thursday, we will not take a bow, as we were far too early.