U.S. stocks rose on Friday morning following PCE data. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), rose 0.3% in March, which was below estimates of a 0.5% increase and matched the increase in February. Core PCE also rose 0.3%, which was steady from last month and in line with estimates. The latest readings bring the annual rate for headline PCE to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in February, and core PCE to 2.8%, which was unchanged from last month. The Dow was down 0.4%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq lost 2.1%. Crude oil is trading near $84 per barrel and gold is up $5 to $2348 per ounce.

The cold hard message is sinking in. Higher rates are here to stay for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said multiple times that the Fed will be 'data-driven' when deciding on monetary policy. And the data has spoken. First, let's look at inflation. There has been great progress made in knocking inflation down from its peak of 9.1% in June of 2022. But achieving progress at the current lower levels, with inflation in the low-3% range, as expected, has been difficult. The Fed has been specific, saying inflation needs to be at 2% before restrictive policy will be eased. The Fed was patient after the January inflation data, and again with February data. But when March showed persistently higher prices, the Fed threw came right out and said that change can wait. Chairman Powell said the following last week. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence..." and "If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." Now let's consider unemployment. The Fed again has been specific. Officials are looking for a 4.1% unemployment rate to gently (hopefully) slow the economy. Currently, the rate is not budging and is vacillating between 3.8% and 3.9%. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, the following is a list of industries and companies we like that should benefit from a sustained period of higher interest rates. All are BUY-rated at Argus.

Two recent inflation reports indicated that overall pricing pressures have retreated from peaks in 2022. But both also signaled that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0%. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the overall inflation rate in January of 3.2% was higher than the prior month's 3.1%. That sour news was offset a bit by a drop in the core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy and eased to 3.8% from 3.9%. Two main factors are propping up CPI: Transportation Services (+9.9% YOY) and Shelter (+5.7%). These categories have prices that don't fall sharply. The other inflation report was the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures pricing trends farther up the supply chain, at the manufacturing level. Here, we also saw a modest pick-up. The core final demand PPI rate for February was 1.6%, up 60 basis points month-over-month after having fallen from 4.4% a year ago. We have noted for months that making progress on inflation will be hard -- and nothing was overly alarming about either of the reports. Energy prices remain relatively subdued and prices at the PPI Intermediate demand level -- farther up the value chain -- continue to decline. We think the June 2022 CPI rate was the peak reading for the index this cycle, as the housing market cools, supplies of new vehicles are replenished, and the price of oil stays around $90. The Fed lifted the feds fund rate from 0.0% to above 5.25% over the past 18 months, and the hikes appear to be reducing inflationary pressures. We look for the U.S. central bank to be lowering rates in 2H24 as their concern shifts more toward economic growth.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Capital One Financial Corp. (COF); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Novo Nordisk (NVO); Shell Plc (SHEL) and the Focus List deletions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); Morgan Stanley (MS); Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM).

We've seen growing evidence of rotation away from mega-cap tech. Indeed, even a textbook 'impressive' beat can lead to a 'sell the news' reaction for these stocks. Betting on more near-term upside from these stocks, no matter what they report, is a tough technical game as they all have extreme 14-day and 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings in the high 70s to mid-80s.

Stocks are higher at midday, this after weakness earlier in the session that was mostly the result of disappointing guidance from the likes of Intel and KLA Corp. That said, December's headline Personal Consumption Expenditures price index appears to have resonated with investors who seem to be increasingly of the opinion that the Fed has indeed set the stage for a soft landing of the U.S. economy. PCE rose 0.2%, following a 0.1% decline in November and leaving annual PCE unchanged at 2.6%. Core PCE also rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in November and bringing the annual rate to 2.9% from 3.0% last month. Elsewhere, Personal Spending rose 0.7%, which was higher than the expected increase of 0.5%. Personal Income drifted lower, rising 0.3% to match expectations but down from 0.4% in November. As well, solid earnings from American Express and Colgate-Palmolive are adding to a positive mood as the trading week draws to a close.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following strong earnings from Amazon and generally positive inflation data. The Commerce Department said that its personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 3.4% from the prior year in September, in line with the revised reading for August and the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 3.7%, down slightly from 3.8% in August and also in line with consensus. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil rose to $84 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1992 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from major Tech companies and the Fed's interest rate decision later this week. Business activity data was mixed. S&P Global said that its flash Services PMI fell to 52.4 in July, down from 54.4 in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.0. At the same time, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 46.3 in June and came in above the consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $78 per barrel while gold fell $5 to $1962 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from major Tech companies and the Fed's interest rate decision later this week. Business activity data was mixed. S&P Global said that its flash Services PMI fell to 52.4 in July, down from 54.4 in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.0. At the same time, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 46.3 in June and came in above the consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $78 per barrel while gold fell $5 to $1962 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Microsoft, Boeing, and AT&T. Microsoft shares fell after the company posted mixed results and offered disappointing sales guidance for the current quarter, driven in part by a slowdown in the Azure cloud services business. On the positive side, AT&T shares rose 5% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and strong growth in wireless subscribers. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 1% to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1935 per ounce.

Black Friday. Cyber Monday. The retailers are out in force, with a massive marketing push to win consumer dollars during this key holiday shopping season. One dubious gift from 2022 is much lower stock prices. Just like retail merchandise, stocks seemingly are at a big discount right now. But investors must shop with care, focusing, in our opinion, on quality companies with solid finances, proven track records, and strong management teams. This week, we used the Argus Screening Tool to find a list of companies that appear to be low risk, have strong balance sheets, and seemingly represent undervalued opportunities. Specifically, we screened the Argus Universe of Coverage for companies with a BUY rating, a market cap over $8 billion, and with a HIGH financial strength rating from Argus. Then we sorted for those furthest away from their Argus 12-month target price (suggesting a deep discount). The following list is weighted towards Technology -- which is not surprising after the beating the sector has taken so far this year.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning as investors looked past weak 3Q results and disappointing guidance from Amazon. Energy shares rose, as both Exxon and Chevron reported much stronger-than-expected earnings. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index fell 10.2% to 79.5 in September. The Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 5.0%. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1645 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning following Tuesday's massive selloff. Microsoft shares rose 6% after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal 3Q results and projected double-digit revenue growth for the next fiscal year. On the negative side, Alphabet shares fell 3% after disappointing first-quarter sales and earnings. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil fell slightly to $101.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $18 to $1886 per ounce.

This edition features our different tune on Sirius XM, credit card company calculations, China equities, and GoodRx, Carnival, and Adobe.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. Based on positive vaccine developments and actions from the administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes. We also expect insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector accounts for 10.7% of the S&P 500, down from 16.3% following the exclusion of Real Estate stocks. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 9% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 11%-12% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All of the following stocks currently are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from Tuesday's selloff, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Housing market data was positive. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 11.9% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 811,000, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $88 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1832 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, despite a weaker-than-expected GDP report, as investors continued to focus on strong third-quarter earnings. The Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP rose at a 2.0% annualized rate in 3Q, the weakest reading since 2Q20 and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 2.7% growth. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil fell to $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1800 per ounce.

Cash is no longer king for point-of-sale transactions, with only 12% market share compared to 38% for credit cards, 29% for debit cards, and 10% for the fast-growing digital wallet sector. We see a long secular road for growth, as digital payments are in the early stages of transition. Factors driving this trend include U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve encouraging digital over paper money; the pandemic, which has accelerated contactless payments as a safety step; and greater merchant acceptance for small dollar amounts. Importantly, the emerging generations (Millennials and Gen Z) embrace both mobile banking and digital payments. Forecasts call for digital-payment transaction value to grow at an 11% compound annual rate for the next five years and to reach $11 trillion from the 2020 level of $5.4 trillion. Several companies in the Argus Research fundamental universe of coverage are in position to take advantage of this opportunity. Each of the following stocks is rated BUY at Argus.

This edition features electrical suppliers and the fight against greenhouse gases; more talk of tapering; Amazon's earnings; and notes from Tesla, Starbucks, and Pinterest.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning amid a new round of earnings reports and housing market data. Investors also looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 6.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 800,000. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1799 per ounce.

This edition features the latest banking stress tests; policy effects on pharma firms; an opportunity with Prosegur; and three new-coverage notes: Naver, Deliveroo, and Stellantis.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. With market optimism rising on positive vaccine developments and the new administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net-interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes, and insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector now accounts for 11.4% of the S&P 500. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 10% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 12%-15% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model portfolios. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning as investors weighed mixed earnings reports and awaited the Federal Reserve's policy announcement this afternoon. Boeing shares fell following a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss, though the company also reported a strong increase in aircraft deliveries. Microsoft shares also fell despite better-than-expected sales and earnings. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1773 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday, but gave up some of their midday gains, as investors weighed results from a range of major companies along with new employment and GDP data. The Labor Department reported that both first-time and continuing unemployment claims fell from the prior week, and came in below consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 4.0% rate in 4Q, slightly below the consensus forecast of 4.2%. For the full year, the economy contracted at a 3.5% annualized rate - the first full-year decline since 2009. On the earnings front, McDonald's posted disappointing 4Q sales and earnings, with international comp sales down 7.4%, reflecting the impact of coronavirus lockdowns in Europe. Tesla shares fell 3% after the automaker posted mixed fourth-quarter results and failed to provide specific sales guidance for 2021. The Dow rose 0.99%, the S&P 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 0.50%. Crude oil fell to $52 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1845 per ounce.