Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following new economic data. For the week ending February 3, initial jobless claims were 218,000, down from the previous-week's revised 227,000. Ongoing unemployment was 1,871,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous-week's revised 1,894,000. On the earnings front, shares of Arm Holdings (ARM) are up 58% on positive 4Q earnings and forward guidance. The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) rose 12% on an earnings beat and dividend raise. The S&P 500 was trading just below the flatline, the Dow was down 0.3%, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel and gold fell $5 to $2046 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Walmart and CPI

When looking at insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research over the past few weeks, the significant talking point has been Vickers' one-week sell/buy ratio for stocks that trade on the Nasdaq. While Vickers' other indicators generally were in keeping with historical standards during earnings season, the sell/buy ratio for the Nasdaq bearishly skyrocketed three weeks ago to 13.20 (on a scale where a reading above 2.50 is bearish). Last week, the ratio improved significantly, but at 7.51 was still uncomfortably high. This week, the ratio is 6.68 and again has improved but again has more wood to chop. But the trend is positive -- and that trend, along with other sentiment barometers that are of little concern, has resulted in a stabilization in overall insider sentiment.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning on continued concerns about a potential U.S. government default, as investors hoped for positive signs from a meeting between President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. On the earnings front, Airbnb and Occidental Petroleum will report results after the close, and Disney will report on Wednesday. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $2035 per ounce.

The stock market has been bombarded with bearish news -- and the last thing investors needed was trouble in the banking sector. It took just two days for SVB Financial Group (SIVB) to implode and seven days for Silvergate Capital (SI) to get crushed. End of day, it felt a tad like 2008, when Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns went down in a hurry. When banking problems start, more shoes often drop. Both of the above banks were big players in the crypto world, so the events of last week are perhaps not completely surprising.

Last week in this space, we reported on weekly insider sentiment that suggested a pullback in stock prices was possibly in order, this after a very strong January. This week, the data on insider sentiment, reported by Vickers Stock Research, is again of concern.

After two down days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen to a fairly important area in the near term, namely the 4,100 level. Short-term trading is filled with intricacies. But we are not (and never will be) short-term traders, using a myriad of charts and multiple computer screens that must be watched constantly.

The S&P 500 (SPX) broke out of its trading range early last Monday, but gave it all back over the balance of that same day. The Fed may be trying to put a ceiling on the stock market, as Fedspeak remain steadfastly hawkish -- spoiling the attempted breakout even though inflation is clearly easing. But even after the ugly reversal the past Monday, the index rebounded over the following three days, completing a small breakout. Traders may be getting a bit tone deaf when it comes to the Fed's constant banter, as interest rates across the curve sit on the precipice of a large breakdown.

October, as it has been many times in the past, was a wild month -- and at least a short-term bear killer. The month started out great and then the major indices fell off a small cliff and declined to new bear-market lows. But stocks had an amazing bullish reversal on October 13 and have been grinding nicely higher ever since. While it's a start, we are a long way from putting the bear fully into hibernation, despite the calendar's turn toward colder weather.

Recent one-week insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research have been toggling between very positive and neutral. As a result, Vickers' eight-week sell/buy ratios have started to retreat a bit from the exceedingly bullish levels of a few weeks ago. Still, current readings remain well below the 2.00 line that starts the bullish territory for these sentiment gauges. Vickers' current NYSE Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.60, the Nasdaq is 1.87, and the Total, which accounts for activity across all of the exchanges, is 1.74. Those are good sentiment readings under any conditions.

Literally everything seems to be going against the stock market. Rising yields across the curve, a strong dollar (which no one seems to be talking about), surging crude oil prices along with gasoline and heating oil, and a Fed that must start taking liquidity out of the system. Oh, and let's not forget about the war, continued supply issues, and stubborn inflation. Did we miss anything? Ah, yes. A breakdown in mega-growth stocks, an absolute collapse in hyper-growth stocks, a massive drawdown in cryptos, and broad economic worries.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following more signs of accelerating inflation. The Labor Department said that U.S. consumer prices rose at a 7.5% annualized rate in January, up from 7.0% in December. The reading exceeded the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 7.3% and was the highest since 1982. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose an annualized 6.0%, up from 5.5% in December. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $92 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1841 per ounce.

We continue to keep a close eye on market breadth, as longer-term measures of breadth remain supportive of higher stock prices, while intermediate-term breadth has improved and is mildly bullish.

Over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the largest public works bill since the 1950s. The bipartisan trillion-dollar bill, which was passed by the Senate in August, now goes to President Biden's desk for signing. The plan focuses on improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids. It also targets the auto industry, with a focus on electric vehicles and charging stations. In the power sector, Biden's goal is to achieve a carbon-free power industry by 2035. To improve energy efficiency in buildings, he is looking to retrofit four million buildings in the four years. Elsewhere, business Services companies also stand to benefit; bond issuance should pick up given that the infrastructure spending plan will be financed at least in part by bonds; and payroll companies could get a boost processing more paychecks as the infrastructure plan creates "millions of good paying jobs." All-in-all, some of the companies that we think may benefit include the following.

The stock market moved higher last week during the busiest days of earnings season. Tech stocks far outperformed blue chips, though a portion of the outperformance was attributable to Tesla, as its stock is included in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, but not the DJIA. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 89 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 was up 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.33%. For the week, the DJIA was up 143 points, or 0.40%, the S&P 500 was up 1.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.70%. For the YTD, the DJIA is up 17.03%, the S&P 500 is up 22.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 20.25%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Second-quarter earnings announcements are nearly complete, with some 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. The profit recovery from the depths of the pandemic low in 2Q20 was been swift, with earnings growth of 93% in 2Q21, according to Refinitiv. But earnings do not look good just on a relative basis -- the $53.93 projected to be earned by S&P 500 companies for the second quarter is the highest ever for the index. Investors can now turn their attention to the third quarter, when earnings are expected to rise a still-strong 30% year-over-year. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here are 20 BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q21 EPS reporting season.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and weaker-than-expected employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 330,000 jobs in July, down from 680,000 in June and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 695,000. Services sector data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index rose to a record 64.1 in July, up from 60.1 in June and above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1813 per ounce.

The 1Q21 EPS season is mostly in the books, with retailers the last group to report over the next two weeks. The results were impressive -- but came against an easy comparison with last year's 1Q, when the world started to shut down to fight COVID-19. Through early May, Refinitiv reported that S&P 500 earnings rose 50.4% year over year -- the best quarter since 1Q2010. Some 87% of companies have come in ahead of expectations, up from the prior four-quarter average of 76%, according to Refinitiv. Where is the growth? Consumer Discretionary remains atop the list with a 170% earnings increase. Financials is second at 130%. Only Industrials is expected to remain negative -- with a 2% decline. Even the Energy sector, expected to have an earnings decrease at the start of the quarter, is now poised for 8% growth. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here are 20 BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage at which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q21 EPS reporting season.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning, recovering some of their losses after Tuesday's selloff. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in March. The reading was the strongest since last September but missed the Reuters consensus, which called for an increase of 800,000 jobs. The Institute for Supply Management said that its services index fell to 62.7 in April, down from 63.7 in March and below the consensus forecast of 64.3. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $66 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1783 per ounce.

Just as the economy moves towards a broader reopening this summer, consumers are faced with the highest gasoline prices in two to three years. So we must take the good with the bad. Driving gas prices is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is at $65.68/barrel and just below the recent closing high of $66.09 from March 5. It appears that after a few months of consolidation, crude oil may finally break out of its range.

While the year-to-date winners in 2021 were the big losers in 2020, the winners in 2020 aren't doing too badly. There are always reversions to the mean, to some degree. It happens in the stock market, sports, politics, the economy, consumer confidence, etc. Going back to 2009, the one thing that remains consistently strong and bullish for the overall stock market is market breadth.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

Stocks were largely flat on Friday morning as investors weighed new consumer sentiment data and awaited further progress on the Biden administration's stimulus plan. The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index fell to 76.2 in the first half of February, down from a final January reading of 79 and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 80.8. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $59 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1825 per ounce.

We have adjusted our recommended sector allocations this month. The following reflects our guidance for the calendar first quarter of 2021. We have raised the Industrial and Financial Services sectors to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. We have lowered the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors to Market-Weight from Over-Weight. The rebalancing process takes place four times a year, early in the months of March, June, September and December. Our current Over-Weight sectors are Technology, Healthcare, Financial Services, Industrial and Utilities. Our current Market-Weight sectors are Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Basic Materials. Our Under-Weight sectors are Energy and Real Estate. Argus suggests that investors use this process to tweak weightings within their balanced equity portfolios in order to take advantage of valuation imbalances.

Despite some selling on the month's final day, November was a rockin' month for stocks. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it was the best month since 1987. For the S&P 500, curiously, it was the best month since April 2020.

The 3Q20 EPS season is mostly in the record books, with retailers the last group to report. The results were not pretty, but were better than 2Q20. Through mid-November, Refinitiv reported that S&P 500 earnings declined in 3Q at a 7.4% rate -- a vast improvement from the prior quarter's 30.5% decline. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings declined at a 3.2% rate. Of the 462 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q3, 84% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four-quarter average of 73%. Our analysts are always looking for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. There were not many in this most-recent period. Here are 12 BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the recent EPS reporting season.

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