The Same, Only Different: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Monday Tee Up: Walmart and CPI

Monday Tee Up: Will CPI Have a Two- or a Three-Handle?

On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 2.1% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gave up 2.3%, dragging the S&P 500 down 0.7%. Three of the largest sectors (which are 2023 winners by far) led the damage. Discretionary fell 3.4% due to TSLA's 9.7% decline; Tech dropped 2%, led by a 3.3% drop in semiconductors; and Communication Services lost 2% due to NFLX's 8% wipeout.

Weekly Tee Up: Powell Testimony and Housing

Stocks rose strongly on Monday morning ahead of key inflation data, the January consumer price index, on Tuesday. Investors will be looking closely at the CPI report for more clues about the trajectory of Fed rate hikes in the coming months. In Europe, the European Commission raised its forecast for 2023 eurozone GDP growth to 0.9% from a prior 0.3%, and trimmed its inflation forecast to 5.6% from 6.1%. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell $11 to $1863 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning following new inflation data. The Labor Department said that its core producer price index, excluding food, energy and trade services, rose 4.9% from the prior year in November, down from 5.4% in October and the smallest increase since April 2021. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose $17 to $1818 per ounce.

We'll quickly sum up 2022 to date. Stock markets down, bond yields across the curve up, and the U.S. dollar up. The trend is your friend...until it's not! An adaptation of Newton's first law of motion goes like this: A trend in motion is more likely to continue than to reverse. The corollary to this, and a key part of technical analysis, is that prices trend. A great amount of money can be made in the financial markets by riding long-term trends. But if it were easy, everyone would do it once a primary trend is confirmed.

Stocks rose on Friday morning amid more signs of moderating inflation, as average U.S. gas prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since early March. Consumer sentiment data was also positive. The University of Michigan said that its preliminary August consumer sentiment index rose to 55.1, up from 51.5 a month earlier and above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 2% to $92.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1811 per ounce.

Reading Tea Leaves on the Labor Market |Jobs Friday

Stocks plunged on Thursday on concerns about soaring inflation and the impact of aggressive Fed rate hikes. The Labor Department reported that its consumer price index rose at a 7.5% annualized rate in January, up from 7.0% in December and the highest reading in 40 years. Employment data was mixed. First-time jobless claims fell to 223,000 for the week ended February 5, down from 239,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 230,000. Continuing claims were flat with the prior week at 1.621 million and slightly above consensus. The Dow fell 1.47%, the S&P 1.81%, and the Nasdaq 2.10%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1830 per ounce.

This edition features Broadridge's potential, trends in utility companies, new coverage of Datadog, and Eastman, Atlassian, and Comcast.

Stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday morning, led by declines in the Technology and Real Estate sectors. Employment data was better than expected. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 807,000 payroll jobs in December, up strongly from 505,000 in November. The increase was the strongest in seven months and far exceeded the Reuters consensus forecast of 400,000. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1824 per ounce.

The stock market moved slightly higher last week as blue chips outperformed tech stocks by a healthy margin. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9 points, or 0.03%. The S&P 500 was down 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.51%. For the week, the DJIA was up 420 points, or 1.22%, the S&P 500 was up 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.09%. For the YTD, the DJIA is up 13.53%, the S&P 500 is up 16.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 13.12%.

A Glitch in the Matrix: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fluctuated on Friday morning amid continued inflation concerns, a day after Thursday's sharp selloff. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 2.4% in January after declining in December, helped by government pandemic relief checks and a reduction in new coronavirus cases. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $44 to $1731 per ounce.

Insider sentiment continues to suggest a reasonable degree of caution. As we have said for several weeks now, this caution does not mean that a major correction is bound to occur. But it does suggest that there are few near-term catalysts that insiders see as likely to drive stock prices (around all-time highs already) quickly higher.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid weaker-than-expected August employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 428,000 jobs last month, up from a revised 212,000 in July but well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 950,000. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $42 per barrel, while gold fell $32 to $1947 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid weaker-than-expected August employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 428,000 jobs last month, up from a revised 212,000 in July but well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 950,000. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $42 per barrel, while gold fell $32 to $1947 per ounce.

This edition features utilities' dividend strength; cybersecurity trends; a fresh look at airlines; and notes from Netflix and new coverage DiaSorin and Central China New Life.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions after senators introduced a new bill that would sanction Chinese officials who enforce new security measures in Hong Kong. Industries trading higher today include Household Products, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Software. Industries trading lower include Wireless Telecommunication Services, Energy Equipment & Services, and Airlines. The VIX is up 0.39 to 29.92. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $33 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1735 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions after senators introduced a new bill that would sanction Chinese officials who enforce new security measures in Hong Kong. Industries trading higher today include Household Products, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Software. Industries trading lower include Wireless Telecommunication Services, Energy Equipment & Services, and Airlines. The VIX is up 0.39 to 29.92. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $33 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1735 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid continued U.S.-China tensions after senators introduced a new bill that would sanction Chinese officials who enforce new security measures in Hong Kong. Industries trading higher today include Household Products, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Software. Industries trading lower include Wireless Telecommunication Services, Energy Equipment & Services, and Airlines. The VIX is up 0.39 to 29.92. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $33 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1735 per ounce.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Atmos Energy is the largest publicly traded, fully regulated, pure-play natural gas utility in the United States, serving more than 3 million customers in Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Virginia. About two thirds of its earnings come from Texas, where it distributes natural gas in northern Texas, including Dallas, and has a 5,700-mile intrastate gas transmission pipeline spanning several key shale gas formations and interconnected with five storage facilities.

The Situation is Evolving: Scenarios for an Outbreak

The Situation is Evolving: Scenarios for an Outbreak